The European Union, major EU powers and the United Kingdom have called for adherence to international law and condemned Iran’s regime, but so far they have not articulated a unified response. European leaders appear divided, sidelined and largely defensive as the crisis in the Middle East—with potential repercussions for Europe—unfolds.
In the wake of Iran’s drone attack on Cyprus (an EU territory) and strikes on Gulf assets, questions are growing over whether Europe can remain on the fence. Experts say most European powers are pursuing a defensive strategy rather than direct military involvement.
Cornelius Adebahr, Associate Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), says EU members and the UK are united in taking defensive measures if a European country is attacked and in supporting Gulf partners, but they disagree on US war aims and how far to back US action against Iran. “There will be no unified position on the war,” Adebahr said. “On the other hand, none of the member states will enter the war directly; they will not play an active role alongside the US or Israel.”
US pressure on Europe has increased. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump expects “all of our European allies” to back the US and Israel. Trump criticized delays in European backing and rebuked UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer after Starmer said he did not believe in “regime change from the skies.” Starmer has questioned the legality of the war but has allowed US use of two British bases.
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz won praise from Trump after visiting Washington and permitting US forces access to Ramstein Air Base. France has authorized a temporary presence of US planes at some French bases, but only after securing guarantees they would not be used to strike Iran and would operate solely to support regional defense. Italy says it has not received a US request to use its bases and may instead provide air defence systems to Gulf states. Analysts characterize limited base access as a compromise under US pressure.
Iran’s strike on a British Royal Air Force base in Cyprus alarmed Europeans, prompting Italy, Greece, the Netherlands and France to send naval vessels to the island. Observers warn Iran appears willing to expand the conflict beyond the Gulf and into Europe. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute said Tehran seems to believe Europe must “pay a cost” for the war to end. NATO and European leaders have also warned of threats from Iran, including alleged terrorist plots and assassination attempts affecting people on European soil.
There are additional European concerns: rising energy prices, possible migration flows via Turkey, and disruption of military supplies needed for other conflicts. EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas said there is no immediate migration pressure but Europe must prepare if the war drags on. She also warned that higher oil prices and reduced Gulf supplies could push buyers toward Russian crude, enriching Moscow and enabling further attacks on Ukraine.
Some experts argue Europe would face greater danger if it directly engaged Iran. Antonio Giustozzi of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) noted that Britain and France are concerned about the risks of direct involvement. Adebahr said the bloc lacks coherence, with countries prioritizing national interests and domestic public opinion. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has firmly opposed the war and refused US access to Spanish bases; Trump has threatened to cut trade ties with Spain. Spain’s stance is out of step with most European governments, Adebahr said, reflecting domestic political considerations and limited public support for Trump.
Germany’s approach appears more conciliatory toward the US, focused on preserving relations and national interests. Many European countries are preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and the economic fallout from strains in transatlantic relations. “There’s a feeling of ‘this is not our war now, we have Ukraine to worry about,’” Adebahr said.
Kallas warned that the Iran conflict could hurt Ukraine by diverting military equipment—such as air defence systems—to the Middle East. She cautioned that disruption in Gulf oil supplies could strengthen Russia economically and militarily.
Edited by Rob Mudge
