While talks continue over a US plan to end the war in Ukraine, Russia has announced it captured Pokrovsk and nearby Vovchansk in Donetsk. Kyiv denies the claims and accuses Moscow of propaganda.
Who controls Pokrovsk?
On December 1, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, citing a report by Russia’s General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov to President Vladimir Putin, said “Krasnoarmeysk” — the Soviet-era name Russia still uses for the city — had been taken. Ukraine renamed the City of the Red Army to Pokrovsk in 2016.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on December 2 it had found no evidence of a complete Russian seizure. A senior NATO official, however, told journalists in Brussels that over 95% of the city was under Russian control, though “some small pockets” of Ukrainian forces still resisted. The official added Kyiv had taken measures to limit the strategic impact on Ukraine’s timetable.
Ukraine’s military says it remains in control of parts of the area. On December 1 it reported that, despite difficult fighting, its forces were repelling attacks in the Pokrovsk metropolitan area. The Airborne Assault Forces said soldiers were preparing for winter tasks, strengthening and equipping positions, and that a recent Russian plan to occupy the metropolitan area had failed. General Staff spokesman Dmytro Lykhoviy told Ukrinform that as of December 3 the northern section of the city along the railway remained under Kyiv’s control.
Staged show for Steve Witkoff?
The Kremlin released footage showing soldiers raising a Russian flag in the city center. Military expert Jan Matveyev argued that such video does not prove a current capture, pointing out Russia had controlled the city previously; he suggested the footage was staged ahead of US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff’s visit to Moscow.
Analysts from Ukrainian project DeepState, Roman Pohorily and Ruslan Mykula, say fighting has concentrated in the northern part of Pokrovsk in recent weeks. They reported that Russian assault groups have increased in size, now advancing in formations of four or five, indicating larger concentrations in the city center that allow them to push outwards. Due to a lack of infantry, Russians had not yet fully expelled Ukrainian forces but had numerical superiority that made complete Ukrainian withdrawal “only a matter of time,” Mykula said.
Pohorily warned that Ukraine’s tactic of repeatedly disabling individual Russian fighters was unsustainable. While Kyiv’s units could recapture roads or areas temporarily, Russian forces could return because southern access routes remained open and Moscow had a large troop concentration there. Austrian military expert Markus Reisner told DW Ukrainians still hold isolated houses on the outskirts and resist attacks, including from glide bombs, but from a military perspective “the city has already fallen.”
What about Myrnohrad?
DeepState analysts said Pokrovsk’s fate will largely determine what happens in nearby Myrnohrad, about 7 kilometers away. Although fewer Russian troops are present in Myrnohrad, the situation there is more precarious: logistics are still functioning in Pokrovsk, but entering or leaving Myrnohrad is “almost impossible,” even if it is not fully encircled. Pohorily said Ukrainian defenders in Myrnohrad were being resupplied with drones and ground robots, but movement on foot is extremely dangerous. “If Pokrovsk falls, the Russians will control every movement,” he warned, questioning how Ukrainian forces could exit Myrnohrad under such conditions.
Street fighting is said to be limited in Myrnohrad; instead, Russians are advancing on the outskirts from multiple directions and using bombs and rockets to push defenders out. Pohorily noted Russian-launch points for drones in the southeast and reported repeated infiltrations of the villages Rivne and Svitle between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
Could Russia take all of Donetsk?
Pohorily said “only a miracle” could rescue Ukraine’s position, and that saving civilian lives would be the priority under such conditions. He did not predict specific consequences for the rest of Donetsk if Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad fell. Mykula suggested capturing these cities would ease Russian logistics and provide bases to station thousands of troops, facilitating further attacks on remaining Ukrainian-held areas.
The senior NATO official told reporters that if Pokrovsk were taken, Russians would likely use it for logistics and as a springboard to attack other Donetsk towns, but they did not see the fall of Pokrovsk as presaging an imminent collapse of Ukrainian defenses. NATO assessed it was unlikely Moscow could seize the remainder of Donetsk “for at least another year or two.” ISW analysts also doubted that losing Pokrovsk would significantly accelerate Russia’s conquest of the entire Donetsk region.
This article was originally published in Ukrainian.