As US–Iran tensions raise the prospect of wider conflict, Lebanon finds itself in a fragile and uncertain position. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has repeatedly said Lebanon will not intervene in foreign disputes and has urged Hezbollah to avoid dragging the country into “another adventure.”
Iran-backed Hezbollah’s deputy leader Naim Qassem has warned that any US attack on Iran would be treated as an attack on Hezbollah. A later Hezbollah statement, updated on February 26, 2026, said the group would regard an attack on Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as a “red line,” according to AFP.
Israel, the main US ally in the region, has cautioned Beirut that it would strike hard and target civilian infrastructure if Hezbollah becomes involved in a US–Iran war—a warning confirmed by two Lebanese officials this week. Analysts say Iran would likely expect Hezbollah to contribute by putting pressure on Israel, but Hezbollah faces rising domestic constraints.
Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at RUSI, says Hezbollah must weigh Tehran’s expectations against Lebanon’s internal politics. President Joseph Aoun’s push to integrate Hezbollah into the state and the group’s stake in Lebanon’s political future raise the costs of engaging in a major, open-ended war.
Hezbollah’s fragmentation and strength
Hezbollah’s armed wing—designated a terrorist organization by the US, Germany and others—began attacking Israel to support Hamas a day after Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack. A November 2024 ceasefire ended 11 months of skirmishes and two months of full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel. During the fighting, Israel reportedly killed much of Hezbollah’s leadership, struck the group’s infrastructure and arms, and hit large parts of southern Lebanon and areas of Beirut. About 4,000 people were killed, and the World Bank estimated reconstruction costs at roughly $11 billion.
The ceasefire called for Hezbollah’s disarmament, but the group has relinquished weapons only south of the Litani River and refuses full disarmament, citing the need to defend Lebanon against ongoing Israeli strikes and the continued Israeli presence at several points along the border. Israel has said it will continue to target Hezbollah as long as it poses a threat. Hezbollah remains part of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” which also includes Hamas, the Houthis, and various Iraqi militias; the group sees the United States and Israel as adversaries.
Salam told Lebanese media that the state continues efforts to disarm Hezbollah beyond Phase 1 (the area between the border and the Litani River), calling disarmament an “irreversible sovereign choice.” He was more cautious about implementing Phase 2 (north of the Litani), saying it depends on several factors, including the outcome of an international conference in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces scheduled for March 5, 2026, in Paris.
Observers warn that delays in disarmament will make the task harder as Hezbollah rebuilds. The Institute for the Study of War noted that postponement could allow reconstitution of forces. Yet Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center says Hezbollah remains weaker than before the war and has become more fragmented, which complicates collective decision-making.
Within Hezbollah, the military wing opposes disarmament while the political wing—well represented in parliament and running hospitals and social services—is more open to negotiations. Hage Ali emphasizes that the political (Shiite community) element carries significant influence in Lebanon’s politics, so any move on disarmament must account for internal political dynamics.
Analysts say a likely Hezbollah response to US–Iran escalation would be limited and symbolic rather than a full-scale campaign. Ozcelik suggests Hezbollah might carry out a calibrated set of attacks against Israeli targets to demonstrate solidarity with Tehran while trying to avoid provoking massive Israeli retaliation. Still, she warns, changing conflict dynamics or direct Israeli action could force a different, more forceful response.
Public fear and fatigue
Lebanon’s population, already battered by an economic collapse since 2019, political paralysis, the 2020 Beirut port explosion, and the 2023–24 fighting with Israel, has little optimism about the future. Reconstruction plans depend heavily on Hezbollah’s disarmament, leaving many skeptical that international assistance will materialize.
Voices across the country reflect anxiety and resignation. Nadim El Riz, a 35-year-old videographer near Saida, told DW he feels hopeless and expects a large, deadly regional war between Iran and its proxies and the US and Israel. Raymond Khoury, a 38-year-old fitness trainer in Beirut, said he fears Lebanon could be dragged into conflict because of Hezbollah’s ties to Iran. Fatima Naim, 27 and living in Beirut, says she copes by trying not to think about the possibility of escalation and focuses on day-to-day life to avoid constant fear.
Edited by: Jess Smee
This article was updated on February 26, 2026, to reflect the latest Hezbollah statement.