Since the outbreak of the Iran war, most Southeast Asian governments have prioritized calls for de-escalation and the protection of their citizens and migrant workers in the Middle East.
Malaysia issued a measured statement condemning both US‑Israeli strikes and Iran’s retaliatory attacks, urging “all parties [to] exercise maximum restraint.” Foreign ministers of Vietnam and Cambodia likewise urged restraint, while Thailand said it was “closely monitoring the situation with grave concern.” Singapore’s foreign ministry lamented the failure of negotiations, referring to Oman‑led diplomacy that had sought to keep Washington and Tehran talking. A joint ASEAN foreign ministers’ statement on March 4 called the escalation “regrettable” and a “grave threat to the lives and safety of civilians, as well as to regional and global peace and stability.”
Much of the messaging from the region has concentrated on the safety of nationals in the Middle East. Philippine officials and media report about 1,600 Filipinos in Iran and more than 2.2 million Filipinos across the Middle East.
Can the US be trusted?
Observers say the region’s responses have been predictable. Joseph Liow, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, described Southeast Asia’s statements as “usual, predictable statements” and noted underlying unease about how the Trump administration wields US power, often with apparent disregard for international law.
Legal concerns are salient in a region that places high value on international law, especially among states with maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea. Many analysts argue that US‑Israeli strikes on Iran violate the UN Charter’s prohibition on the use of force—a debate that intensified after earlier US attacks on Venezuela. Hunter Marston, a non‑resident adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned the conflict will have long‑term effects on how Southeast Asian countries view the US. He said Trump’s rejection of international law and norms and perceived disdain for allies are prompting regional states to seek alternative trade and security partners, and that the strikes have reinforced perceptions of the United States as a “reckless and fickle superpower.”
Indonesia’s balancing act
Indonesia faces a particularly complex balancing act. President Prabowo Subianto, who has joined several controversial US initiatives, offered to mediate between Washington and Tehran, saying he is prepared to travel to Tehran if both sides agree. Indonesia was among the few Southeast Asian countries—alongside Cambodia and Vietnam—that signed up to US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace scheme for Gaza, a move fiercely opposed by many Indonesian Islamic groups. Prabowo attended the board’s inaugural meeting and committed to sending 8,000 Indonesian troops to help maintain security in Gaza.
Shortly before the board’s meeting, Jakarta concluded a reciprocal trade agreement with the US that reduced tariffs on many Indonesian exports while opening Indonesian markets to US goods—steps that have drawn domestic criticism, including from major Islamic organizations.
Regional public sentiment is mixed. Most Southeast Asian Muslims are Sunni, while Iran is predominantly Shiite, so sympathy for Tehran is not uniform. Yet anger over the Gaza conflict has already sparked boycotts of brands perceived as linked to the US and Israel across the region.
Economic fallout across Southeast Asia
Beyond geopolitics, the immediate worry for Southeast Asian governments is economic. Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the conflict’s geopolitical consequence will likely be a declining US image in the region, but the pressing issue is economic. Oil and gas prices have surged and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted—particularly problematic for Southeast Asian net energy importers. Several regional currencies have tumbled against the US dollar and stock markets have suffered steep declines.
In Thailand, the country’s stock exchange halted trading early after the market plunged by 8%. Myanmar’s junta announced fuel rationing for private vehicles. Singapore, which imports nearly all its energy, warned it would likely need to revise growth forecasts for the year.
Edited by: Shamil Shams