German lawmakers in the Bundestag have approved a proposal to roll back the recent aviation tax increase, a move that could modestly lower levies on tickets if the Bundesrat (upper house) gives its approval. The change would take effect on July 1 and restore tax rates to their level before the May 2024 rise.
How much the tax will fall
– The aviation levy will be reduced by between €2.50 and €11.40 per flight depending on distance. Short-haul and domestic flights drop from €15.53 to €13.03; medium-haul flights (2,500–6,000 km) fall from €39.34 to €33.01; and long-haul taxes go to €59.43 from €70.83.
– The federal government is expected to lose roughly €350 million in annual revenue as a result.
Industry reaction and skepticism
Airlines welcomed the signal of relief but warned it may not be decisive. Kay Lindemann, Lufthansa Group’s policy and regulation representative, said the reversal is welcome but not a full turnaround, stressing that the aviation tax is only one part of a heavier overall tax and cost burden that has grown since 2019. He also warned that overly high costs could push aircraft and business activity to more attractive locations.
Some analysts say passengers are unlikely to see meaningful price cuts. Gerald Wissel, CEO of Airborne Consulting, said the state will forgo revenue, but travelers probably won’t benefit directly from the tax reduction.
Wider fiscal and competitive context
The Federal Association of the German Aviation Industry (BDL) argued the cut is too small to offset other government-imposed costs that make Germany less competitive than some other European markets. Lowering the aviation levy is possible because those receipts typically flow into national coffers, but experts note any shortfall must be made up elsewhere in already strained budgets.
Data from the German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) show 84 million passengers subject to the aviation tax traveled in Germany last year — up from 62 million in 2022 but still below the 96 million recorded in 2019. Meanwhile, revenue from the aviation levy has nearly doubled since its 2011 introduction, rising from €963 million to about €2.1 billion last year, making it a steady part of budget planning.
Operational pressures beyond taxes
Airlines face several other cost and capacity challenges that reduce the likelihood the tax cut will translate into cheaper fares. Kerosene and energy prices have risen sharply since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February, forcing carriers to suspend some low-margin routes; Lindemann said around 1% of the least profitable routes have been suspended due to the recent surge in fuel costs.
Global supply issues compound the problem. A December 2024 IATA report warned of a record backlog of roughly 17,000 unfulfilled aircraft orders worldwide. At current delivery rates that backlog would take about 14 years to clear — roughly double the pre-2019 average — contributing to an aging global fleet that now averages about 15 years, while airlines also face long-term pilot shortages.
Effects on budget carriers and German airports
Low-cost carriers are feeling pressure from the aircraft crunch and rising costs. Ryanair has around 400 jets on order (about 100 for replacement and 300 for growth), and EasyJet is also managing limited deliveries. As a result, carriers are prioritizing capacity on their most profitable routes.
EasyJet plans modest seat growth in 2026 of just 2–4%, below the group’s broader target of around 7%. Ryanair has already announced cuts in Germany: it will close its base at Berlin Airport and halve flights to the German capital starting this autumn; Cologne/Bonn is set to lose 44 Ryanair services. Analysts expect these changes to be temporary: Germany remains Europe’s largest aviation market and is unlikely to be abandoned long-term once delivery and cost pressures ease.
Bottom line
The proposed tax rollback will reduce per-flight levies and take some pressure off airlines, but many industry observers say it is unlikely to translate into substantial or immediate ticket price declines. Airlines face multiple other cost drivers — fuel, airport charges, aging fleets, delivery backlogs and crew shortages — that are likely to determine fares and route decisions in the near term. When aircraft deliveries eventually catch up, competition may intensify again and capacity could rise, which could ultimately put downward pressure on prices.
This article was originally published on December 7, 2025, and updated on May 21, 2026.