NPR’s Adrian Ma speaks with Lebanese journalist Kim Ghattas about how the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran is affecting the region.
Ghattas, based near Beirut, says a wide-scale Israeli evacuation order displaced roughly 800,000 residents—about 13% of Lebanon’s population—after intense bombing and a possible ground offensive targeting southern suburbs where Hezbollah has offices and infrastructure. Beirut’s suburbs are densely populated, and the evacuation has placed huge pressure on the rest of the country.
Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel to show solidarity with Iran after the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, prompting Israel’s campaign. Ghattas warns this could mark a long-term Israeli campaign against Lebanon independent of how the broader war unfolds.
The Lebanese government has declared Hezbollah’s military actions outside the law, called for Iranian Revolutionary Guards to leave, and said it arrested people carrying weapons in the south. But many Lebanese view these steps as too little, too late. Officials had opportunities over the past year to reassert state authority in southern Lebanon but were reportedly cautious, fearing that confronting Hezbollah might spark civil war. Ghattas says a full-scale civil war is unlikely, though isolated incidents and widespread anger persist.
Zooming out, Iran has launched missiles and drones into neighboring countries—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Oman—saying U.S. military bases are targets, though civilian sites have also been hit. Gulf states are unhappy and worried about the broader costs: rising oil prices, disrupted trade routes, impaired energy production, and damaged tourism.
Ghattas suggests Iran may be trying to raise the cost of the conflict to pressure Gulf countries and the United States into seeking a quick resolution. But the strikes could backfire by pushing Gulf states closer together against Iran. Recent tensions among regional rivals, such as between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have eased as they rally over the unexpected regional crisis. So far, Gulf countries have avoided direct participation—denying the use of their airspace or territory—though they may increase diplomatic and economic pressure.
Ghattas, author of Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, And The Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, And Collective Memory In The Middle East, says the region faces a dangerous new phase with heavy burdens on small countries like Lebanon, which has now endured intense war twice within about 18 months.