March 7, 2026
Germany begins a year of regional elections on Sunday with a closely watched vote in Baden-Württemberg, seen as an early barometer of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s standing after ten months in office. Polls show the Greens closing on the Christian Democrats (CDU), erasing months of CDU advantage and putting the state contest on a knife edge.
Green lead candidate Cem Özdemir was polling at roughly 28%, matching the CDU’s support as backing for CDU candidate Manuel Hagel weakened following renewed attention to remarks he made about schoolgirls eight years ago. Longtime state premier Winfried Kretschmann, who has led Baden-Württemberg since 2011 and remains broadly popular, is not seeking re-election. Most forecasts still expect the existing Green–CDU coalition to retain a majority, with Özdemir the frontrunner to succeed Kretschmann.
Baden-Württemberg is one of Germany’s richest states and an automotive industry centre, making the outcome significant for both national politics and the economy. Merz has campaigned in the state and conceded the race will be “closer than we thought,” while defending his behaviour during a White House meeting with US President Donald Trump. Merz said he would not use a public camera moment to argue with the US president and emphasised the need to focus on shared values, noting Europe’s continuing reliance on the United States for defence. His discussions with Trump touched on the war in Iran and trade issues, including tariff policy.
Attention also turns to Bavaria, where local elections will see more than 10 million voters choose mayors and council members. Unlike some regional contests, Bavaria does not permit 16-year-olds to vote in these local elections. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been rising in the polls and could reach about 14% in local support according to a new Sat.1 survey — a substantial gain from roughly 4.7% six years ago — potentially making the AfD the second-strongest force at the municipal level. The Greens were polling near 10% in that survey. In Munich, incumbent SPD Mayor Dieter Reiter is pursuing a third term but has faced late-campaign controversy.
On European affairs, former Chancellor Angela Merkel used a speech at Hamburg’s St. Matthew’s Day Banquet to press for deeper EU unity in the face of multiple global crises. She urged Europe to “take its destiny into its own hands,” saying unity must extend beyond security to include democracy, the rule of law, human dignity, prosperity, jobs, border protection and cultural identity. Merkel also called for greater digital autonomy for the EU and urged continued military and diplomatic support for Ukraine to prevent a Russian victory and secure Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Economic anxieties at home are stark. An Ipsos survey for ING of 1,007 respondents found 27% of households reported having no savings. Among those without savings, about half said their earnings were insufficient to save and 22% pointed to rising living costs. Financial stress is affecting wellbeing: 17.9% said they experienced sleep problems due to financial worries, and 36.5% agreed they felt they would never have the things they want because of their finances. The survey underlines persistent wealth inequality: the Bundesbank estimates the richest 10% of households hold roughly half of Germany’s financial wealth, while about 20 million households possess only around 8%.
Sunday’s Baden-Württemberg vote is the first of five state elections scheduled for 2026. Germany’s complex electoral rules mean that, in some contests, detailed results and final seat allocations may take several days to confirm.