Chancellor Friedrich Merz has oscillated in his relationship with Donald Trump: a year ago he was a sharp critic, then moved toward rapprochement, culminating in a White House visit two weeks ago where he voiced understanding for the US‑Israel strikes on Iran and declined to lecture Trump on international law. Now Merz is stepping back — saying Trump has gone too far in Iran.
“The government will not participate in this war,” government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius said, adding Germany will not join a military operation to secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz. “This war has nothing to do with NATO; it is not NATO’s war,” he told journalists asking about a possible naval contribution. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius echoed that stance: “It is not our war; we did not start it. We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end, but additional warships in the region will likely not contribute to that.” He also said the EU’s Operation Aspides, deployed to protect Red Sea sea lanes from Houthi attacks, is not suitable for the Strait of Hormuz.
On his Truth Social platform, Trump urged China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK and others to send ships to the area after Iran’s blockade of the strait, and warned that NATO faced a bleak future if it did not help secure the route — vital for oil transport. Germany pushed back: “The United States did not consult us before this war either. And in that respect, we believe that this is not the concern of NATO or the federal government either,” Kornelius said.
Merz has grown increasingly critical as the conflict drags on. “With every passing day of the war, more questions arise. Above all, we are concerned that there is apparently no joint plan [of the US and Israel] for bringing this war to a swift and decisive conclusion,” he said about ten days into the conflict. A prolonged war, he warned, would have far‑reaching consequences for Europe in security, energy supply and migration.
Rising oil prices already show the direct impact on Germany. That hits Merz politically: economic recovery is his government’s top priority. Germany is only inching out of recession thanks to large new investment and growing public debt; companies are filing for bankruptcy or relocating, and unemployment is rising. The Ifo Economic Institute predicts the Iran war will dampen Germany’s recovery and fuel inflation: if the war ends soon, growth this year could be reduced by 0.2 to 0.8 percentage points; if it lasts longer, the downgrade could be around 0.4 points.
Merz faces a double dilemma. He wants to keep sanctions on Russia to maintain pressure over the Ukraine war, but Germans overwhelmingly expect the government to act on high energy prices. State elections in Saxony‑Anhalt and Mecklenburg‑Western Pomerania in September could be influenced by the crisis; the far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which favors ending sanctions on Russia, leads in polls. Trump’s call to suspend energy sanctions to lower prices plays into the AfD’s narrative.
The second dilemma is foreign policy: Merz wants to appear a reliable US ally after cultivating ties with Trump, yet public opinion in Germany overwhelmingly opposes any military involvement in the Iran conflict. That reluctance is mirrored in the UK and France, which have also so far been reserved about joining a US‑led intervention. The willingness across Europe to follow the US into a war started without consulting allies remains low.
This article was originally written in German.
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