Chancellor Friedrich Merz has swung from critic to conciliator of Donald Trump over the past year — even visiting the White House two weeks ago and expressing sympathy for US‑Israeli strikes on Iran — but he has now moved away again, saying the US president has gone too far.
‘The government will not participate in this war,’ government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius told reporters, stressing Germany will not join military operations to secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz. ‘This war has nothing to do with NATO; it is not NATO’s war,’ he added when asked about a possible naval contribution. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius echoed that position, saying Germany ‘did not start it’ and that deploying additional warships would probably not help a diplomatic solution. He also said the EU’s Operation Aspides, which protects Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks, is not suitable for the Hormuz situation.
On his Truth Social platform, Trump urged countries including China, France, Japan, South Korea and the UK to send ships after Iran’s blockade of the strait and warned NATO’s future could be bleak if it did not help secure the oil route. Berlin pushed back: ‘The United States did not consult us before this war either,’ Kornelius said, adding that Germany does not see the crisis as a NATO or federal government concern.
Merz has grown more critical as the conflict has dragged on. About ten days into the fighting he warned that ‘with every passing day of the war, more questions arise,’ and voiced concern that there appears to be no joint US‑Israel plan to bring the fighting to a swift, decisive end. He warned a prolonged conflict would have major consequences for Europe’s security, energy supplies and migration flows.
The economic impact is already being felt in Germany as rising oil prices threaten a fragile recovery. Merz’s government has made restoring growth its top priority; the economy is only slowly recovering after recession, aided by heavy investment and rising public debt. Firms are restructuring or relocating and unemployment is edging up. The Ifo Economic Institute estimates the Iran war could reduce growth this year by 0.2–0.8 percentage points if it ends soon, and by around 0.4 points more if it persists.
That feeds into a double dilemma for Merz. Domestically he wants to keep sanctions on Russia to maintain pressure over the Ukraine war, yet voters expect action to curb high energy costs. State elections in September could be influenced by the crisis, and the far‑right Alternative for Germany — which favours lifting some sanctions — leads in polls. Internationally, Merz wants to present Germany as a reliable US partner after courting Trump, but public opinion in Germany overwhelmingly opposes military involvement in Iran. The UK and France have also been cautious. Across Europe there is little appetite to follow the US into a conflict launched without consulting allies.
This article was originally written in German.