The Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran is central to global oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Around one fifth of all oil transport worldwide passes through this bottleneck. Fears about its closure amid recent US-Israeli attacks on Iran have driven up prices and prompted buyers to look for alternative supplies, including from Africa.
Can Africa’s oil-producing countries increase output quickly enough to help stabilize markets? Dependence on crude is so great that price rises since the outbreak of conflict have alarmed companies, governments and consumers. “[Africa’s oil and gas sector] can help, but not quickly enough and not on the scale that would be required,” said Robert Kappel, former president of the GIGA Institute.
Short-term role limited; medium-term gas potential
Africa’s ability to ease the current supply-and-price shock is limited, says Stefan Liebing, managing director of the Africa-focused investment firm Conjuncta. He stresses the continent’s greater medium-term role, especially for natural gas. Since 2022, European buyers have competed for African gas as they seek alternatives to Russian supplies.
Nigeria: constrained by spare capacity and infrastructure
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, “definitely has the potential” for higher output, analyst Ayodele Oni told DW. But the biggest obstacle is a lack of significant spare capacity. In the International Energy Agency’s March 2026 oil market report, Nigeria’s production was listed at 1.42 million barrels per day with additional available capacity at zero. “The current production level already reflects the maximum volume the country can maintain in the short term,” Oni said. “There is no buffer that could be quickly activated in response to market shocks.”
Raising production would require major investment and time. Key hurdles include inadequate infrastructure, an ageing pipeline network, underfunding, security problems in the Niger Delta, and the long development timelines of major upstream projects, especially deepwater fields. For deepwater developments, several years can pass between investment approval and first oil — meaning higher global prices would not bring immediate new volumes to market.
Nigeria has begun initiatives to boost output. The government-backed “One Million Barrels” project aims to reactivate shut-in wells, accelerate interventions and remove regulatory delays. Tax reforms are also being pursued to attract investment. But analysts caution there is no “magic button” to rapidly increase production to meet a sudden global shortfall.
Refining bottlenecks and the Dangote refinery
A domestic issue for Nigeria is weak state-owned refining capacity. Historically the country exported crude and imported refined fuels, using export proceeds to buy gasoline and diesel. Since 2024 this has shifted somewhat: the privately owned Dangote Refinery in Lagos — the largest in Africa — processes about 650,000 barrels per day and supplies roughly 60 million liters of fuel daily to the domestic market. This reduces dependence on imports for refined products, but does not immediately increase crude export capacity to soothe global markets.
Angola: cautious expansion but limited global impact
Angola, Sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest oil producer, left OPEC in 2023 to retain flexibility over production timing and volumes. Luanda is investing to raise oil output and develop gas reserves for the LNG market, making the country more attractive to Western investors since the war in Ukraine and the Middle East crisis, says Angolan energy expert Flavio Inocencio.
Angolan officials have been cautious about responses to recent price moves. Economy Minister Jose de Lima Massano noted that higher prices bring “positive news” for producing countries but also increase import costs for goods and transport. Inocencio and other analysts argue that even if countries like Nigeria and Angola increased output, African producers collectively account for only about 10% of global oil production — far short of replacing the roughly 20 million barrels a day transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Conclusion
Africa can contribute to easing energy pressures over the medium term, particularly through gas exports and by expanding production capacity where feasible. However, limited spare crude capacity, infrastructure constraints, security concerns, long project lead times and the continent’s relatively small share of global oil output mean Africa cannot rapidly replace large volumes lost from disruptions in the Middle East. Countries such as Nigeria and Angola are pursuing reforms and investments to raise production, but these will take time to translate into significant extra supplies on world markets.
Jamiu Abiodun, Ololade Adewuyi and Sandra Quiala contributed to this article. It was originally published in German.
