The world has focused on oil and LNG tankers missing from the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war, since the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman carries about a fifth of global crude and LNG exports. But a more fragile cargo is fertilizer — plus the food imports that sustain Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
Gulf nations account for roughly 20% of global traded volumes of key fertilizers like ammonia, phosphates and sulfur, according to maritime intelligence firm Signal Group. Nearly half the world’s traded urea — the most used nitrogen fertilizer — comes from the Gulf, with Qatar supplying about one-tenth of global urea, Bloomberg Intelligence says.
When QatarEnergy halted production after Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG and fertilizer hub, hundreds of thousands of tons of fertilizer nutrients and precursors were sidelined. The Iran war compounds the third major risk to global food security in six years, after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian farmland and ports in 2022. Fertilizer prices have risen 10–30% since the latest conflict began, though they remain about 40% below the spike after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Fertilizer shortages could cut crop yields. UNCTAD estimates about 1.33 million tons of fertilizer are exported through Hormuz each month, so a 30-day closure could trigger shortages and threaten yields for nitrogen-dependent crops such as corn, wheat and rice. Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), warns higher prices will affect crop choice: farmers may switch to less fertilizer-intensive crops or simply use less fertilizer, especially poorer farmers, reducing output.
Despite US claims the conflict is “very nearly over,” Iran fired on at least three vessels in or near Hormuz, per the UK Maritime Trade Operations, indicating Tehran may keep the strait effectively closed. Additional strikes have been reported on container ships and tankers in the broader Gulf. Commodity analysts say the longer Hormuz is off-limits, the more fertilizer supply chains will seize up. Dutch bank ING warned a prolonged disruption would tighten fertilizer availability in import-dependent regions such as Brazil, India, South Asia and parts of the EU.
Other producers — Russia, China, the United States and Morocco — have limited spare capacity and cannot quickly make up shortfalls. China has restricted phosphate and nitrogen fertilizer exports but could face pressure to relax those limits. Glauber notes nitrogen can be produced where there is natural gas or coal, unlike potash or phosphates that rely on mineral deposits, but high natural gas costs make rapid production increases uneconomical.
Rising oil prices will also push food costs higher. Oil powers farm machinery, transport, processing and refrigeration; energy price swings affect every stage of food production. With Brent crude around $100 per barrel after swings to $119.50, diesel prices have surged: US West Coast diesel rose to $4.69 per gallon, a 14% jump over two weeks, while diesel in Germany now exceeds €2.10 per liter, up about 20% in days. Asian importers of Gulf oil, including China, Japan and South Korea, are seeing sharp fuel increases. India has pledged to freeze retail diesel and gasoline prices to shield consumers and transport.
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned a sustained 10% energy price rise for a year could add 0.4 percentage points to global inflation and cut up to 0.2% from growth. “Energy indirectly makes up about 50% of the cost of food,” Glauber said, noting that after high food inflation in 2023–24, prices have not returned to earlier levels.
The human cost will land unevenly. India is highly exposed, relying on the Gulf for up to two-thirds of its nitrogen fertilizer imports; shortages could jeopardize the monsoon planting season and lift production costs for staples feeding 1.45 billion people. Brazil depends on Gulf-sourced urea for roughly 40% of its nitrogen needs; sustained disruption threatens soy and maize yields amid already tight global supplies. Sub-Saharan Africa faces a severe longer-term risk: many countries already use fertilizer well below recommended rates, so even modest price increases could force smallholders to cut use further, lowering harvests and worsening chronic hunger.
Inside Iran, inflation exceeded 40% before the conflict, with food prices even higher; disruptions to imports, energy and logistics may deepen food inflation and hardship. Gulf states import 80–90% of their food — from grains and meat to dairy and vegetable oils — and a prolonged closure of Hormuz could deplete strategic reserves within months, forcing rationing or expensive rerouting via the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman.
Edited by: Ashutosh Pandey
