The sentence that set off the debate was spoken almost casually at the Chancellery in Berlin when Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa addressed journalists after their meeting. Asked how many Syrians currently in Germany should return, Merz said: “In the longer term, over the next three years, and this has also been President Sharaa’s wish, around 80% of the Syrians currently residing in Germany should return to their home country.”
The remark left journalists and many politicians baffled. With more than 900,000 Syrians in Germany, is an 80% return realistic? Merz later said he had merely relayed what he said was the Syrian president’s wish. Al-Sharaa, however, denied making such a demand, telling a Chatham House event that “I didn’t say that. That was said by others, by the Chancellor. He said that,” according to the official translation.
The row threatens to become a diplomatic incident. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul defended Merz, saying the goal reflected the German government’s aims. Yet criticism came from across the political spectrum. Green Party lawmaker Luise Amtsberg called the statement “not only out of touch with reality, but cynical,” arguing it ignored Syria’s fragile security situation and the fact that many Syrians are integrated into German society.
Even some in government expressed irritation. Saarland premier Anke Rehlinger (SPD), the junior coalition partner, warned that naming specific figures and timeframes raises expectations Merz may not be able to meet. Roderich Kiesewetter, the CDU’s foreign policy expert, stressed the practical problem of losing people working in nursing and medical professions if large numbers returned. The German Hospital Federation noted that Syrian doctors are the largest group among foreign doctors in Germany.
At the same press conference Merz acknowledged this concern, saying Germany has an interest in ensuring that those who want to stay and are well integrated — including doctors and nurses — remain in the country.
Numbers underline the scale and complexity of the issue. About 1.2 million people of Syrian origin live in Germany; more than a quarter have acquired German citizenship. Most refugees arrived after the Syrian civil war began 15 years ago, with around 600,000 arriving before 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic largely halted further arrivals.
Most Syrian refugees in Germany have subsidiary protection, allowing them to stay while they face danger in their homeland. The federal government asserts that Syria’s civil war ended after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad at the end of 2024 and the installation of interim President al-Sharaa. Germany resumed deportations to Syria in 2025 for the first time since 2011, but each deportation requires a reassessment of the individual’s protection needs. The Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) conducts case reviews, the outcomes of which can be appealed in administrative court. Courts already face a backlog of some 180,000 asylum cases.
Employment figures show why mass returns would be disruptive. After an average of seven years in Germany, 42% of Syrian refugees have found work, 75% of them in skilled jobs. Employed refugees can shift from asylum status to “labor migration” status, a policy introduced in 2023 to fill skills gaps and integrate refugees into the labor market.
Experts say repatriating large numbers within three years is unrealistic and warn the pledge could backfire politically. The next general election is in three years, and observers say the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) will hold Merz to any promises on repatriation.
Syrian community leaders and migration experts expressed outrage. Nahla Osman, a lawyer and migration-law expert born in Syria and now chairwoman of the umbrella organization of German-Syrian aid associations, said the plan is practically unfeasible and appears aimed more at domestic political signaling amid rising forces like the AfD than at viable policy. A simple calculation, she said, would require deporting about 730 people per day for three years — a logistical scenario without realistic basis.
Voluntary return so far has been limited. Since early 2025 a federal-state program offering incentives — including covered flight costs and a €1,000 start-up grant per adult — has seen 3,678 Syrians accept the offer.
This article was translated from German.