Four decades ago the Strait of Hormuz’s deadly vulnerability to the global oil market became clear. During the 1980–1988 Iran–Iraq war both sides repeatedly targeted oil tankers in the strait, turning a vital crude artery into a floating battlefield. Saudi Arabia responded by building the East–West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu; later the United Arab Emirates built the Habshan–Fujairah line to the Gulf of Oman.
Hormuz’s fragility resurfaced in late February when the US–Israel war with Iran intensified and Tehran warned it would close the strait if attacked. The move left hundreds of oil and gas tankers stranded and disrupted roughly a fifth of the world’s energy flows. Attention has shifted to derisking Hormuz so the narrow waterway cannot be weaponized again. Markets are asking other producers to raise output while governments and campaigners press for faster investment in renewable energy.
Gulf leaders are advancing projects to route more crude around the strait. Reports say Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others are weighing new parallel pipelines and expanded export terminals on alternative coastlines. Landon Derentz of the Atlantic Council urged US support for such projects: “Instead of forcing ships through the chokepoint, the United States and its partners should rapidly build around it,” he wrote. Saudi Arabia’s existing 1,200-kilometer pipeline is already operating at about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 5 million before the war, while the UAE sends roughly 1.8 million bpd to Fujairah.
Robin Mills, CEO of Qamar Energy, notes the scale of the task: before the war about 15 million bpd transited Hormuz. “You would need to double [current pipeline capacity] to get all of the original crude exports out,” he said. New bypasses can be expensive, time-consuming and politically sensitive, but experts argue they may be the only reliable way to reduce future vulnerability. Many plans have existed for years but stalled over cost, distance and regional rivalries.
Some Gulf states face geographic limits. Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar lack alternative coastlines, meaning nearly all their hydrocarbon exports must cross Hormuz. They would likely need long, politically fraught pipelines through Saudi Arabia or Iran, projects that could take at least three to four years or longer.
International agencies are also proposing wider solutions. The International Energy Agency has pushed a major pipeline from Iraq to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. IEA chief Fatih Birol called the project “extremely attractive” from Europe’s perspective and said financing could be found.
Iraq is moving faster on western export routes. Its northern Kirkuk–Turkey pipeline, restarted last September, is pumping up to 250,000 bpd. The Iraqi government has put the $4.6 billion Basra–Haditha segment, a 685-kilometer southern-to-western line, out to bid; that leg could later extend to Jordan’s Red Sea port of Aqaba, or possibly to Syria or Turkey, and might deliver up to 3 million bpd in phases. Iraq has also discussed a separate pipeline to Oman’s Duqm port.
Overland transport is gaining traction. Gulf governments plan to expand rail and road links to smooth non-crude freight flows. The GCC Railway aims for a 2,100-kilometer integrated network across the six GCC states by 2030. The UAE’s Etihad Rail has increased freight service during the war to shift containers away from vulnerable ports; Saudi Arabia has boosted rail freight capacity and opened new routes for stranded cargo. While rails and roads cannot replace tanker volumes, they ease pressure on supply chains and provide insurance against future disruptions.
Backed by large energy revenues, Gulf states have the financial means to pursue these projects. Whether they can overcome political, technical and regional hurdles will determine if this crisis marks the start of the end for the Strait of Hormuz’s stranglehold on global energy.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru