Japan’s move to lift its long-standing ban on exporting lethal weapons has been greeted positively by allies and criticized by regional rivals, but it could also reshape security dynamics across the western Pacific and raise the risk of greater tensions.
The government confirmed that Japanese firms may now sell advanced military equipment to 17 countries with which Tokyo has defense arrangements, reversing rules that dated back to 1967. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration says the change is intended to strengthen Japan’s own security by boosting partner nations’ defenses.
“There are growing expectations for Japan’s defense equipment,” Takaichi said, adding that transfers to like-minded countries will help enhance their capabilities.
Security concerns underlie the policy shift. Analysts say Tokyo feels compelled to act as China’s naval reach expands and North Korea tests longer-range missiles, altering the regional balance. Masayuki Masuda, director of Chinese studies at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo, said Japan needs to help guarantee the balance of power and deter threats by equipping partners such as the Philippines and Australia.
Two of the earliest beneficiaries are Canberra and Manila. Japan has signed a $6.5 billion deal with Australia to supply 11 upgraded Mogami-class frigates — ships already in service with Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force. The first three warships will be built in Japan and delivered by 2030, with the rest constructed in Australian shipyards. Indonesia has shown interest in acquiring Oyashio-class submarines, and the Philippines is reported to be eyeing Abukuma-class destroyer escorts being phased out by Japan, a move that would bolster Manila as it contends with Chinese maritime activity in the South China Sea.
Tokyo is also deepening high-tech defense cooperation with key partners. Japan is working with the UK and Italy on a sixth-generation stealth fighter under the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) and collaborating with the United States on a Glide Phase Interceptor to counter hypersonic missile threats.
Experts say the decision is driven by a mix of strategic and political motives. Margarita Estevez-Abe of Syracuse University notes that the push to export defense equipment predates Takaichi and ties back to policies pursued by former prime ministers who began easing restrictions in recent years. She identifies two critical drivers now: US pressure on allies to increase defense spending, which Japan’s government wants to channel into supporting domestic industry rather than buying foreign arms; and a political agenda to remove Japan’s pacifist constitutional constraint, Article 9. Greater international instability, she argues, would make it easier to justify constitutional revision and a more robust defense posture.
Allies have expressed support. US Ambassador to Japan George Glass called the change a “historic step,” saying it will enhance defense cooperation, and France said the move will contribute to safety and sovereignty in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. China, however, sharply criticized the development as inconsistent with Japan’s professed commitment to peace and its past defense-oriented posture.
Estevez-Abe rejects Beijing’s characterization, saying such criticisms are routine whenever Tokyo’s leaders take a tougher line. She argues the policy will both solidify existing partnerships and create room for new security ties amid doubts about the reliability of US commitments to its allies. Reducing dependence on American weapons, she says, is part of a broader strategic recalibration among middle powers.
Japan’s new export policy marks a significant shift away from postwar restraint. Whether it will strengthen deterrence without further inflaming regional tensions will depend on how Tokyo manages arms transfers, coordinates with partners, and balances diplomatic engagement with military cooperation.
Edited by: Keith Walker