On May 21 Montenegro will mark 20 years since the narrowly won 2006 referendum that ended its state union with Serbia. The anniversary comes as Podgorica basks in a reputation as the Western Balkans’ front-runner on the road to EU membership — a status earned by reviving stalled accession talks, accelerating reforms and seizing the geopolitical momentum that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Brussels’ renewed focus on enlargement.
Analysts caution, however, that that success sits against a complex domestic and regional backdrop. “It’s easy to be the star pupil in a classroom of bad students,” Daliborka Uljarevic of the Centre for Civic Education in Podgorica told observers, pointing to the uneven progress across the Western Balkans.
How Montenegro became independent
The 2006 referendum produced a tight result: 55.5% voted for independence. For the next 14 years the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), led by Milo Đukanović, dominated politics. Over time his administration was repeatedly criticised for corruption and alleged ties between political elites and organised crime, and many critics described Montenegro as a “captured state.”
In 2020 mass protests and large, church-led rallies against a controversial law on religious property culminated in the DPS losing power — the first peaceful democratic transfer since independence. Observers like Aleksandar Popov of the Center for Regionalism in Novi Sad say that peaceful change was notable in the region: “Montenegro is one of the rare countries in the region that had enough democratic capacity to replace a man who had been in power for so long without major upheaval.”
Identity and political fault lines
Montenegro’s politics remain shaped by a deep pro-sovereignty versus pro-Serbian split. One camp emphasizes a distinct Montenegrin nation and independent statehood; the other regards Montenegrins as part of a broader Serbian nation and stresses close political, cultural and religious ties with Belgrade. The 2023 census reflects this division: roughly 41% identify as Montenegrin and about 33% as Serb — a balance that strongly influences elections and coalition-making.
Pro-Serbian parties are major actors in Montenegro and are widely seen as the principal conduit of Belgrade’s influence. While there is an official cross‑party consensus in favour of EU membership, analysts warn the arrangement is fragile. Popov notes that pro-Serbian forces “can always obstruct the European path on a signal from Belgrade,” and he believes such interference is already occurring.
Relations with Belgrade
Relations with Serbia remain one of Podgorica’s most sensitive issues. Serbia’s president, Aleksandar Vučić, reacted emotionally when invited to Montenegro’s anniversary events, at one point saying attendance would feel like “spitting in the face of myself and my people.” In an opinion piece he later addressed Montenegrins directly, expressing regret that the two countries had not remained together and asking, in effect, for forgiveness for what he described as loving them more than they loved Serbia.
Many experts argue Belgrade never fully accepted Montenegrin independence and still treats Montenegro almost as a temporarily lost part of the Serbian state. Popov contends Serbia has a strategic interest in slowing Montenegro’s EU progress: if Montenegro joins the EU, it would undercut a central argument used in Belgrade that “Europe doesn’t want us,” and would make clear that obstacles lie with domestic politics rather than external rejection. EU membership would also, he says, remove Montenegro from Serbia’s political, legal and security reach.
Persistent challenges at home
Despite its image as a regional success story, Montenegro still faces long‑standing problems. Corruption remains widespread, and some observers say it has become more costly as more political actors seek to reward party loyalists and private interests. Uljarevic urges that the current momentum toward EU accession be used to push for genuine institutional and social reforms rather than as a mere geopolitical shortcut into the bloc.
“Becoming an EU member as soon as possible is our absolute interest,” she says, “but it is equally important that the process is done properly so we do not enter as a defective state.”
Looking ahead
As Montenegro celebrates two decades of independence it faces a twofold challenge: continuing rapid progress toward EU membership while addressing entrenched governance problems at home, all under the shadow of ongoing influence from Serbia. How effectively Podgorica translates its recent diplomatic and reform gains into durable institutions will determine whether the country’s regional leadership on EU accession endures — and whether independence yields the full political and legal separation many here still seek.