NPR’s Adrian Ma spoke with Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas about how the unfolding U.S. and Israeli campaign against Iran is reshaping the region. Ghattas says an Israeli evacuation order and heavy bombing—along with the threat of a ground offensive aimed at southern suburbs that house Hezbollah offices and infrastructure—has displaced roughly 800,000 people, about 13% of Lebanon’s population. Beirut’s suburbs are densely populated, and moving so many people has placed enormous strain on the rest of the country.
She explains that Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel to show solidarity after the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, prompting Israel’s campaign. Ghattas warns this could become a sustained Israeli campaign against Lebanon regardless of how the wider conflict develops. The Lebanese government has declared Hezbollah’s outside-the-law military actions, called for Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces to leave, and reported arrests of people carrying weapons in the south. But many Lebanese see these moves as too little, too late: officials had chances over the past year to reassert state control in southern Lebanon but reportedly hesitated, fearing that confronting Hezbollah might spark civil war. Ghattas judges a full-scale civil war unlikely, though she notes persistent isolated violence and widespread anger.
Beyond Lebanon, Iran has launched missiles and drones into neighboring countries including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Oman, saying U.S. military bases are targets even as some strikes have hit civilian sites. Gulf states are alarmed by the wider fallout: rising oil prices, disrupted shipping routes, damage to energy infrastructure and harm to tourism. Ghattas suggests Iran may be trying to raise the costs of the confrontation to push Gulf governments and the United States toward a quick settlement, but she cautions those attacks could instead push Gulf states closer together in opposition to Tehran. So far, Gulf countries have avoided direct military participation—denying use of their airspace or territory—but they may step up diplomatic and economic pressure.
The situation, Ghattas says, ushers the region into a dangerous new phase, with especially heavy burdens on small states like Lebanon, which has now endured intense conflict twice in roughly 18 months. Ghattas, author of Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, And The Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, And Collective Memory In The Middle East, warns the crisis could have long-lasting consequences across the region.