NATO allies have responded unevenly during the six-week conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. Some members refused to support military steps or barred use of their facilities, while the three Baltic states took a markedly different line — describing Operation Epic Fury as understandable in light of Iran’s nuclear activities, regional threats and Tehran’s support for Russia in Ukraine. Latvia’s president, Edgars Rinkevics, and other Baltic leaders even said the death of Iran’s supreme leader in late February could open a new political moment inside Iran.
Tallinn offered to consider sending demining vessels to the Strait of Hormuz, and Vilnius said it could deploy troops if Washington requested. Lithuania’s president Gitanas Nauseda framed such offers as reciprocal: the Baltics accept the permanent presence of U.S. forces on their territory and therefore expect to be ready to contribute to U.S.-led missions when asked. For the three countries, public backing for America is seen as central to deterring Russia. Moscow has warned of “serious consequences” after accusing the Baltics of allowing the use of their airspace by drones striking Russia — allegations the Baltic governments deny.
Since the Iran conflict began, U.S. defense officials have singled out the Baltic states, alongside Poland and some Gulf partners, as model allies. The region has long been quick to meet U.S. calls for higher defense spending: in 2025 Poland spent 4.5% of GDP on defense, Lithuania 4%, Latvia 3.7% and Estonia 3.4%, compared with 3.2% in the United States.
Analysts say the Baltic approach has become an “established signature style”: consistently aligning with U.S. priorities while avoiding moves likely to provoke negative attention from Donald Trump. The three countries favor deterrence by denial — making their territory difficult and costly to seize — over a posture that relies primarily on retaliatory strikes after an incursion.
Persistent doubts about Washington’s long-term security guarantee have shaped domestic policy. A 2025 Latvian poll found only 43% of respondents believed NATO would fight for the country if it were attacked, while 41% doubted it. That uncertainty has fuelled the expansion of national guards and volunteer defense units intended to make occupation impractical. Civic leaders emphasize that NATO’s security depends on its members: “NATO is us,” a Transatlantic organization official said, underlining calls to strengthen conscription, professional forces and reserve formations.
Preparing for a potential reduction in U.S. engagement, Baltic capitals are courting larger allied contingents. Multinational forces are already deployed across the region: a Canadian-led brigade of roughly 2,000 troops in Latvia, a U.K.-led battlegroup of about 1,500 in Estonia, and Germany’s 45th Armored Brigade in Lithuania, currently around 1,800 personnel with plans to rise to 4,800 troops and 200 civilian staff by 2027. Increasing these deployments remains a diplomatic and military priority.
Beyond rotations and permanent presences, policymakers want faster upgrades to defensive infrastructure — anti-tank obstacles, counter-drone systems and other hardening measures — so the Baltics are better prepared if U.S. attention or resources shift inward. The prevailing argument is pragmatic: if Washington scales back, the region must accelerate self-help and lock in partner commitments now, because later reallocation of resources would make rapid strengthening far harder.