The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling this week, which narrows protections under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, could precipitate a significant decline in the number of Black members of Congress. The court’s conservative majority reinterpreted long-standing safeguards against racial discrimination in voting, a shift that has already prompted Republican calls for new rounds of congressional redistricting.
How many maps can be redrawn in time for this fall’s midterm elections is uncertain; many states have completed or are close to completing primaries. Still, redistricting experts warn that Republican-controlled state legislatures in the South are likely to try to eliminate or reshape some districts with large racial minority populations currently represented by Black Democrats—districts that would probably have been protected under the court’s previous reading of Section 2.
An NPR analysis earlier this year identified at least 15 House districts from Louisiana east to North Carolina that could be vulnerable. That number would rise if recently redrawn districts in Missouri and Texas are included. Exactly how maps will be redrawn remains unpredictable: some Democratic-led states may alter majority-minority districts to spread minority voters and pursue additional seats, while some GOP-led states may retain or concentrate those districts to pack Democratic-leaning voters.
Even the loss of a few such districts could produce the largest-ever decline in Black representation in the House—surpassing the steep drop that followed the end of Reconstruction in 1877. After the Civil War, Black-represented House districts were often in the single digits or absent altogether for roughly a century. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 helped reverse that trend, and representation eventually rose to about 63 districts, roughly 14 percent of the House.
Leaders of the Congressional Black Caucus criticized the decision sharply, arguing it opens the door to coordinated efforts to dilute Black voting strength and dismantle majority-Black districts. The court held that a Louisiana congressional district that had been drawn to comply with Section 2 constituted an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, and it stressed that Section 2 should be applied with an emphasis on proving intentional racial discrimination.
Rep. Terri Sewell of Alabama, a longtime advocate for strengthening and expanding the Voting Rights Act, said she will revise her legislation in response to the recent rulings and affirmed that advocates will continue fighting to protect voting rights. Legal scholars also warned the change could intensify partisan gerrymandering, with one law professor noting that a weaker Section 2 risks silencing communities of color as the country’s electorate diversifies.
Edited by Benjamin Swasey