On the third day of the US‑Israel offensive, Ali Larijani, secretary‑general of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran had prepared for a long war and vowed, “We will defend ourselves, whatever the cost.”
Since February 28, the United States and Israel have carried out a coordinated military campaign aimed at Iranian leaders, military sites and government facilities. Several senior Iranian figures have been killed, but Iran’s theocratic system has so far remained standing. In response, Iran has launched waves of missiles and drones at Israel, neighboring Gulf states and US bases across the region. The United Arab Emirates has reported being struck by hundreds of rockets and drones in recent days.
By March 4, Adm. Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, said Iran had fired more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones, and he accused Tehran of conducting indiscriminate attacks on civilians. A weapons expert who spoke anonymously cautioned that exact inventories of Iran’s remaining missiles and drones are uncertain.
Before the conflict began, Israeli estimates put Iran’s ballistic missile stock at roughly 2,500. That arsenal has likely been reduced both by Iranian launches and by US‑Israeli strikes that reportedly damaged or buried storage sites. Satellite images circulating online have been presented as showing hits on missile bases near Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad and northern Tabriz, including collapsed tunnel entrances to underground depots. Mobile missile launchers are being monitored closely, but it is unclear how many missiles were moved before strikes or how many launchers remain functional. Israeli authorities warn that, despite losses, Iran still retains substantial missile capabilities.
Iran appears able to scale drone production rapidly. Leaked Russian documents claim Tehran could manufacture about 5,000 drones per month; many of these systems can be launched from simple scaffolds erected in hours. Commonly used models such as the Shahed reportedly cost Iran only a few thousand dollars apiece to produce, while a US Patriot interceptor can cost up to roughly $3 million.
A New York Times analysis using satellite imagery and verified video found that Iran employed short‑range missiles and drones to damage facilities tied to communications and radar at or near at least seven US military bases in the Middle East. Because US communications infrastructure is heavily protected, the precise effects are difficult to assess, but the pattern of strikes suggests an effort to degrade US command, control and coordination.
Many analysts argue Iran is aiming to buy time. Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, told DW that Iran’s leadership is preparing for a protracted conflict and seeking resilience — the ability to absorb attacks and continue fighting.
The heaviest toll of the fighting has fallen on Iranian civilians, particularly in densely populated areas. Iranian sources reported that a primary school in the southern city of Minab was hit on the first day of the conflict; state media showed mass funerals for 168 children and their teachers who reportedly died in the attack. The United Nations described the event as “absolutely shocking” and called for an investigation. Israel denied responsibility for the school strike, and the United States — which had two aircraft carrier strike groups in the region — said it would investigate.
What remains uncertain is how long Iran can sustain operations that combine missile salvos and mass drone launches without significant depletion of key stockpiles or further damage to production and storage facilities. Iran’s ability to disperse assets, accelerate drone manufacturing and exploit low‑cost unmanned systems gives it endurance advantages, even as high‑value missile inventories and hardened sites take losses. The conflict’s duration will hinge on attrition rates, external support, and whether strikes against logistics and production become more effective.
This article was originally written in German.