Donald Trump has repeatedly issued ultimatums that often go unenforced. In early April he set a tight deadline aimed at Iran, then announced a 14-day ceasefire just as that deadline neared expiry. That deadline passed without resolution and was extended; the most recent agreement contains no fixed end date.
Trump says the US will refrain from attacking Iran until Tehran submits a new proposal to end the conflict and the matter has been concluded one way or another. Meanwhile, the US Navy will keep blockading Iranian ports.
The ceasefire enabled the first direct US–Iran negotiations in nearly a decade, but mistrust on both sides has so far prevented substantive progress. Talks that were due to resume in Islamabad under Pakistani mediation were repeatedly postponed or canceled. The US insists on a 15-point plan; Iran has its own 10 demands. Neither side is likely to accept prolonged uncertainty indefinitely.
Three broad outcomes are conceivable: renewed negotiations that bridge the gap and produce a peaceful agreement; continued deterioration that leads to resumed fighting; or a prolonged, unstable stalemate. The tense military posture in the Strait of Hormuz means escalation remains a real risk.
Key points of contention
Two US demands are central: that Iran relinquish its nuclear program and guarantee free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump cannot revert to the concessions in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiated under Barack Obama, which Trump abandoned in 2018 and under which he reimposed sanctions, arguing he could secure a “better deal.”
US media report the talks collapsed mainly over timeline disagreements: Iran was reportedly willing to suspend its nuclear program for five years, while the US demanded at least 20 years without uranium enrichment. Disputes also persisted over monitoring and the disposition of Iran’s existing enriched uranium.
Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Since the war began on February 28, Iran’s response to US and Israeli strikes has been to choke civilian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery for global trade. Tehran’s blockade showed how effectively it could halt passage and has led to talk of imposing a toll, which would give Iran economic leverage as global shortages of fuel and other goods already start to bite. Even after the ceasefire extension, Iran announced Revolutionary Guards attacks on three freighters.
The US has responded with its own blockade on vessels approaching or leaving Iranian ports, cutting Tehran off from critical trade routes. Restoring unimpeded shipping now would likely require an international naval mission to reassure companies and crews that transits are safe.
Political pressures and internal dynamics
The conflict has domestic political costs for Trump. Elements of his MAGA base are uneasy after he moved away from his earlier promise to avoid prolonged foreign wars. Economic effects from the blockade are being felt in the US and globally, increasing the political cost of military escalation. With midterm elections six months away, the risk of losing a Republican Congressional majority adds pressure on Trump both to avoid a protracted war and to secure a favorable outcome.
In Iran, the new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s regime may be less pressed to rush a settlement, though the US blockade is hurting the Iranian economy. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), described by some experts as a “state within a state,” has gained influence during the conflict and is often seen as less inclined toward de-escalation.
Regional complicating factors
The war was initiated by both the US and Israel, and their objectives differ. Israel’s aims, shaped by existential security concerns and the threat from Iran, are not identical to those of the United States. The broader regional conflict — including renewed clashes between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon — complicates US–Iran negotiations. During the early ceasefire period between Washington and Tehran, Israel continued heavy bombardment of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
A Trump-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is currently in place, with an eye toward a potential normalization that might include Hezbollah disarmament — an outcome that would bolster Israeli security. But that result is far from certain and remains closely tied to developments between the US and Iran.
Outlook
The ceasefire has opened channels for diplomacy that did not exist a month ago, but deep mistrust, divergent demands on nuclear timelines and oversight, control of maritime routes, domestic political pressures, and regional proxy conflicts all complicate prospects for a lasting settlement. Negotiations could still yield a peaceful deal, but the current standoff in the Strait of Hormuz and the reinforced influence of hardline actors on both sides mean renewed fighting remains possible.
This article was originally written in German.