The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has reignited fears that global trade could face disruptions even larger than those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. While the pandemic exposed the world’s dependence on China for manufactured goods and broke just-in-time logistics, the current crisis highlights a different weak point: sudden shortages of critical raw materials — especially oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilizers — that feed through many industries.
The International Energy Agency called the recent loss of roughly 10% of global oil supplies and about 20% of global LNG “the largest shock in the history of the global energy market.” Unlike COVID, which was primarily a demand shock that idled factories and clogged ports, the Hormuz disruption is an acute supply shock concentrated on energy and commodity inputs. That distinction helps explain why energy and commodity prices have surged this time, forcing governments and central banks to revise inflation and growth forecasts.
Shipping routes have been forced into lengthy detours. Tankers and gas carriers that previously transited Hormuz are diverting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of nautical miles and as much as two weeks to journeys. War-risk insurance premiums for vessels in the region have jumped, in some cases adding millions of dollars to a single transit. Those extra costs are already filtering into higher prices for fuels, chemicals and finished goods.
Consultants and supply-chain analysts say the string of crises since 2020 has altered corporate risk calculations. “COVID exposed overdependence on a manufacturing hub, while Hormuz exposed overdependence on a transport corridor and on energy inputs,” says Sebastian Janssen, partner at Oliver Wyman. Lisa Anderson of LMA Consulting Group notes firms now accept that disruptions are not one-offs: companies that learned to expect delayed shipments under COVID now face the prospect of sustained commodity scarcity.
Surveys back those concerns. Nearly two-thirds of firms across 13 countries report worry about further disruptions and rising energy and commodity costs. An Allianz Trade study of 6,000 companies found growing plans to accelerate reshoring and nearshoring, particularly in Europe. Many businesses are adopting a “+1” or “+2” sourcing strategy, adding alternative supplier countries such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia and increasing inventory buffers.
Just-in-time manufacturing is shifting toward “just-in-case.” GEP’s March 2026 Global Supply Chain Volatility Index reported safety stockpiling at its highest level in three years. That shift raises costs for companies and could slow product flows even after transit routes reopen, because restocking and network rebalancing can take months.
Geopolitical risk has climbed the list of strategic priorities. Two-thirds of firms now rank it as a top concern, reflecting anxiety about ongoing conflicts and potential future flashpoints like Taiwan or the Korean Peninsula. John Sfakianakis of the Gulf Research Center says the current crisis is a “stress test” of how resilient interconnected systems — energy, finance, logistics and politics — can be under pressure.
As governments and firms respond by rerouting shipments, paying higher premiums and redesigning supply networks, the episode underscores a central lesson: resilience requires flexibility, redundancy and deeper strategic partnerships across entire supply networks. Whether the Iran war produces a trade disruption larger than COVID will depend on how long the Strait remains closed, how quickly alternate supplies and routes can scale up, and how effectively policymakers and companies manage the cascading effects on energy, commodities and manufacturing.