Cypriot voters will go to the polls on May 24 in a parliamentary election that many observers call one of the most consequential in decades. Although the island’s parliament has limited power under a presidential system, the result is expected to alter party dynamics, coalition math and the run-up to the next presidential vote in 2028.
Recent opinion polls point to a deep transformation of the political scene. The two long-dominant parties — the conservative Democratic Rally (DISY) and the left-wing Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL) — remain the leading forces but each is polling at only around 20 percent. That marks a sharp decline from the larger vote shares these parties once commanded and signals a weakening of the traditional bipartisan model.
For DISY the contest is a test of resilience after losing the presidency and enduring internal strains following the 2023 election of independent Nikos Christodoulides, a former DISY member, as president. AKEL hopes to convert recent momentum into its best general election result since 2006.
Even if DISY and AKEL top the ballot, analysts say a more fragmented parliament looks likely. Corruption scandals, public frustration and falling trust in established institutions have created space for new and nontraditional formations.
The far-right National Popular Front (ELAM) is forecast to become the third-largest force, polling at roughly 10 percent. First entering parliament in 2016, ELAM has significantly increased its vote share over the last decade. Observers attribute its rise to deliberate rebranding and recruiting from across the political spectrum. Running on a ‘‘Cyprus First’’ platform with hardline positions on immigration and conservative stances on social issues, ELAM could influence parliamentary alliances and the choice of the speaker — the country’s de facto second-ranking office.
At the same time, several centrist and traditionally ideological parties are sliding. Parties such as the Green Party, EDEK and Democratic Alignment risk falling below the threshold as voters migrate toward new movements that pitch themselves as pragmatic or post-ideological alternatives.
Notable newcomers include the Direct Democracy movement led by Fidias Panayiotou, a young social media personality who won a European Parliament seat in 2024. The movement emphasizes participatory, technology-driven politics and seeks to transcend left-right labels by appealing to younger and anti-establishment voters. Polls give Direct Democracy a wide range of possible outcomes, from around 4 to 12 percent.
Another fresh contender is ALMA, a centrist party founded by former Auditor General Odysseas Michaelides. After leaving office amid controversy, Michaelides has built a public profile as an anti-corruption campaigner. Polling around the high single digits, ALMA aims to capture voters angry about corruption, weak accountability and declining confidence in state institutions.
Scholars say these trends reflect a larger shift away from rigid ideological alignments toward movements that emphasize issue-based or tech-enabled citizen participation. One political scientist describes a waning of ideological purity and the emergence of parties defined more by style, grievance politics and specific agendas than by classical left-right programs.
The parliamentary vote does not directly determine the executive cabinet, since the president is elected separately and appoints ministers. Nevertheless, the new composition of the House will shape which parties cooperate, who becomes parliamentary speaker, and how parties position themselves ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
The rise of groups with vague or fluid identities has alarmed some establishment figures, who worry about unpredictability and the weakening of traditional party structures. Whether the outcome will produce constructive pluralism or deeper polarization remains the central question as Cyprus prepares for a ballot that could redraw its political map.