Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran war are doing more than slowing oil tankers: they are cutting off critical supplies of fertilizer and a key feedstock used to make it. A temporary ceasefire announced on Tuesday may ease the bottleneck, but its practical effects are still unclear.
Nearly half of the world’s traded urea — the most commonly used nitrogen fertilizer — originates in the Gulf, which also supplies roughly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG). Making ammonia, the building block of nitrogen fertilizers, requires hydrogen, which is commonly produced from natural gas via the Haber‑Bosch process. Interruptions to LNG flows therefore reduce ammonia and urea output as well as fuel availability. Fertilizer and LNG plants from Qatar to Bangladesh have already taken temporary outages; how long production and shipping remain impaired will determine the depth of the crisis.
Immediate consequences
Reduced fertilizer and fuel supplies are likely to push input and food prices higher, with the heaviest burden falling on low‑income countries and smallholder farmers. Higher costs and constrained availability will force difficult choices at national and farm levels: which crops to grow, how much fertilizer to apply, and whether governments will intervene to protect domestic supplies.
Government responses
Governments can act quickly by drawing on policy levers that affect supply or demand. Some countries can release stockpiles: India keeps substantial rice and wheat reserves, and China — the world’s largest fertilizer producer — maintains large fertilizer inventories. Subsidies are another immediate tool; after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, India expanded its fertilizer subsidy to shield farmers from price spikes. Export restrictions are also common: China has limited fertilizer exports repeatedly since 2021 to ensure domestic availability.
These measures often redistribute scarcity rather than solve it. When a country hoards or restricts exports it may protect local farmers but aggravate shortages elsewhere. Wealthier states generally have more fiscal room to offer subsidies or build reserves; poorer neighbors such as Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka may lack that flexibility.
Crop choices and farm-level adjustments
Some farmers can respond by shifting toward less nitrogen‑intensive crops. Legumes such as soybeans and pulses fix atmospheric nitrogen and need far less synthetic nitrogen than cereals like maize. Models in the United States have projected a modest move toward soy planting in response to higher fertilizer and input costs.
But switching crops isn’t universally feasible. Climatic conditions, irrigation systems, and dietary staples constrain options in many regions: in parts of Asia, monsoon patterns and local food needs mean farmers can’t simply abandon rice.
Getting more from less
A large share of applied fertilizer never reaches the crop — estimates suggest only about half is taken up, with the rest lost to leaching, runoff, or released as nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. Improving efficiency is therefore one of the fastest ways to stretch limited supplies.
Precision agriculture tools — including drones, cameras, soil and plant sensors, and data analytics — can target fertilizer applications more precisely in time and space, reducing waste and maintaining yields. However, the upfront cost and technical requirements make these tools slow to diffuse in poorer regions.
Simple behavioral and policy changes can also deliver gains. Heavy subsidies for fertilizer tend to blunt incentives to economize; adjusting subsidy design or offering guidance on efficient application can change practices quickly. For example, after urea prices rose in 2022, many Bangladeshi farmers reduced application rates without measurable losses in rice yields, showing scope for immediate savings even without high‑tech fixes.
Alternative production pathways
Longer term, diversifying how nitrogen is supplied could reduce vulnerability. Biological approaches such as microbial seed coatings or inoculants that help plants capture atmospheric nitrogen are under development and have been scaled in some areas. Renewable‑powered “green” hydrogen coupled with electrochemical or Haber‑Bosch processes is another pathway to make ammonia without fossil gas, and pilot projects for renewables‑based ammonia are growing.
These alternatives are promising but not yet able to replace large volumes of synthetic fertilizer quickly. They are medium‑ to long‑term solutions that require investment, infrastructure and regulatory support.
What needs to happen now
The severity of the current disruption stems from the sheer volume of lost supply. Market analysts warn that fertilizer availability is shrinking at unprecedented rates. Until shipping lanes and production facilities stabilize, food prices and production risks will remain elevated, and low‑income populations will be most exposed.
Policymakers should prioritize measures that stabilize international supply chains, target support to the most vulnerable farmers and consumers, and promote short‑term efficiency gains. Over the medium term, investments in alternative fertilizer technologies, resilient logistics and targeted advisory services for farmers can reduce future dependence on a single region or feedstock. Without coordinated action, disruptions in one chokepoint will continue to ripple through food systems worldwide.