In early February German media warned that a severe cold snap was putting pressure on gas reserves, with reports saying storage levels could last only weeks if conditions worsened. Those fears trace back to the 2022 decision to stop buying Russian oil and gas after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, raising doubts about whether Germany could meet demand without Russian supplies. By 2023 the picture had shifted and the country proved able to cope.
Replacement volumes have come from the United States, Norway and other sources, while import patterns moved toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments by sea. New LNG terminals were planned, approved and brought online quickly, and pipeline connections with neighbouring states were reinforced.
Government and industry officials say the gas supply is secure. The economics ministry points to a well-developed LNG infrastructure across Germany and Europe and to Norway as the main pipeline supplier. The Federal Network Agency reports no immediate threat to supply and warns that storage fill-levels are only one indicator of security; a substantial share of gas arrives continuously via pipelines and LNG shipments from neighbouring countries. Analysts add that the system is more exposed to disruptive events – such as terrorist attacks or the failure of a major import pipeline – than to an ordinary seasonal cold.
Industry experts generally judge current reserves sufficient under normal conditions. Short extreme cold spells of one to two weeks, they say, can be managed with existing stocks, pipeline flows and LNG imports. Legally mandated storage-fill requirements have been met, and the gas sector says it can react quickly to higher demand thanks to the new infrastructure.
Storage facilities follow predictable seasonal cycles: imports are fairly steady year-round, consumption falls in summer and peaks in winter, and surplus summer imports are mainly stored for winter withdrawal (some are re-exported). Market pricing complicates the economics of storage. Last summer’s exceptionally high wholesale prices created a negative summer-winter spread — gas cost more to buy in summer than it could be sold for in winter — which reduced the financial incentive to fill tanks. The government maintains that filling should generally be driven by market mechanisms, with state intervention limited to measures that materially increase security of supply without removing market participants’ responsibilities.
Looking toward next year, the system is regarded as more stable than it was three to four years ago, but challenges remain. Low storage levels at the end of winter raise questions about how tanks will be refilled for the following season. Attractive wholesale price differentials between summer and winter will be needed to make refilling economically viable. Experts call for more flexibility: additional storage capacity, active demand-side management, and broader efforts to electrify heating and expand alternative energy sources, all aimed at reducing dependence on gas and strengthening overall energy security.
This item was originally published in German.