If tensions in the Iran war lead to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, travelers could face growing disruption in the weeks and months ahead. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have warned that any shortage of jet fuel would hit air traffic hard and force airlines to adapt quickly.
Some carriers are already passing higher fuel costs to passengers. As kerosene prices climbed, a few airlines introduced surcharges: Spanish low-cost carrier Volotea added a clause allowing a surcharge of up to €14 per passenger, levied seven days before departure depending on kerosene price movements. Spanish consumer group Facua has complained that the practice is unlawful and lacks transparency, and others warn similar fees could spread.
Beyond higher ticket prices, the bigger danger is large-scale cancellations if jet fuel supplies falter — a pattern already seen in parts of Asia. To reduce the risk of being stranded without fuel, many airlines have preemptively cut schedules. Lufthansa, for example, recently cancelled 20,000 flights planned for the coming months. Passenger rights and remedies vary by region, so what travelers can expect depends on where they fly from and with whom.
In the European Union, the Air Passenger Rights Regulation provides clear entitlements. When flights are cancelled, passengers are usually entitled to compensation between €250 and €600 depending on distance, plus meals, hotel accommodation and alternative transport. The regulation applies to all flights departing from an EU airport regardless of the airline’s nationality; inbound flights to the EU are covered only when operated by an EU carrier.
However, airlines do not have to pay compensation if they notify passengers at least two weeks before departure. Regulators and airlines are likely to lean on that provision where possible to limit payouts. The regulation also exempts carriers from compensation for cancellations caused by “extraordinary circumstances” beyond their control — examples include strikes or natural disasters. Whether a jet fuel shortage counts as an extraordinary circumstance depends on whether the airline did everything reasonably possible to operate the flight. Those determinations are case-specific and may be subject to legal challenge.
Outside the EU, protections are patchy. The United States has no uniform compensation framework; airlines set their own policies for delays and cancellations. The US Department of Transportation requires refunds for cancelled trips but leaves meals, hotels and other assistance to each airline’s discretion.
Geography and supply chains also matter. The US is expected to be less exposed to a jet fuel crunch because it relies less on imports. Europe, by contrast, depends more heavily on supplies that transit the Strait of Hormuz: the European Federation for Transport and Environment estimates those flows account for roughly 30% of Europe’s kerosene demand. Since the conflict began, that reliance has already pushed average fuel-related costs up by about €29 per passenger on intra-European flights and roughly €88 on intercontinental routes, contributing to higher fares.
In short, travelers should expect rising ticket prices, the possibility of last-minute surcharges, and — if fuel supplies tighten further — more cancellations and schedule cuts. Rights and remedies will depend on the route and jurisdiction: EU travelers benefit from stronger statutory protections, while passengers elsewhere may be limited to airline goodwill and refund rules. Staying informed about carrier communications and booking terms will be increasingly important as the situation evolves.