Iran’s deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi was scheduled to meet US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Oman as Tehran seeks an escape from its current security crisis. Iranian sources indicated the discussions would likely center on a Russian-drafted proposal that could be acceptable to both Iran and Washington, though independent confirmation of specifics was lacking.
Hamidreza Azizi, a scholar of Iranian foreign and security policy, said the plan appeared broadly palatable to Tehran and seemed to have been shaped during a recent visit by Ali Larijani to Moscow. Azizi argued that Russia wants to avert a US‑Iran war that would destabilize the region while insisting Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons. Moscow stands to gain by drawing a weakened Iran closer politically, helping US President Trump secure a deal, and reducing European influence in the Middle East.
According to reports, Russia has proposed that state-owned Rosatom supervise and control limited uranium enrichment in Iran to verify adherence to agreed caps. It remains unclear whether Moscow would take responsibility for Iran’s roughly 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium—a sensitive issue since US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025. Some Iranian commentators suggested the 60% enriched material may have been produced as leverage for sanctions relief and could potentially be diluted.
US reporting suggested a successful accord might run on two tracks: one addressing the nuclear program and another covering broader security concerns such as limits on Iran’s missile capabilities. Azizi said Iran’s missile program, more than its nuclear activities, has become the principal point of dispute. Kremlin-linked proposals reportedly include strict guarantees that Iranian missiles would not be used against Israel or the United States, and President Vladimir Putin said he was prepared to mediate between Iran and Israel—a role that would serve Russia’s aim of restoring influence in the Middle East after setbacks tied to the war in Ukraine.
Tehran is unlikely to accept security guarantees that amount to surrendering its deterrent posture; Iran has historically threatened Israel and insists on preserving its defensive capabilities. At the same time, the Trump administration has intensified pressure, saying any meaningful outcome must address ballistic missiles, support for militant proxies, the nuclear program, and Iran’s domestic human-rights record. US officials and analysts have criticized the administration for urging Iranian protesters to seize state institutions while offering little concrete assistance.
Analysts note Washington’s agenda has expanded from narrow nuclear and missile limits to Iran’s wider regional behavior and backing for allied groups—a broader geopolitical negotiation. Iran’s overriding motive appears to be survival and avoidance of near-term military confrontation. Azizi expressed skepticism that talks will produce fundamental changes: Tehran seeks an agreement to remove the immediate military threat and preserve the regime, but he does not expect a major shift in foreign policy under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. With US carriers, warships, fighter jets, and troops deployed to the region, the danger of escalation remains.
This article was originally written in German.