Razed forests, collapsing fisheries and dwindling pollinators are seldom presented as national security issues. Yet policymakers are increasingly recognizing that nature loss poses direct risks to political stability and international order.
A recent assessment by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) links safeguarding critical ecosystems to a country’s future resilience. Biodiversity underpins the water, food, air quality and raw materials societies need; its erosion threatens those foundations. The report warns that six key ecosystem regions — including the Amazon — could face collapse by mid-century, with knock-on effects for the UK and other nations.
Ecosystem failure far from a country’s borders can still destabilize it. Collapse can displace millions, shift weather patterns, worsen food and water shortages, and intensify geopolitical competition over scarce resources. Food insecurity is one of the clearest early threats: more than a third of ocean fish stocks are already overexploited, and over three-quarters of global food crops depend on pollinators that are declining under intensive agriculture. As ecosystems fray, supply shocks and price spikes become more likely — increases that can quickly spark unrest.
Some countries are especially exposed because of heavy import dependence. The UK imports about 40% of its food and lacks the agricultural land to sustain current consumption patterns. In the United States, between 75 and 90% of seafood is imported. Disruptions in producing regions therefore translate into domestic shortages and economic pain. DEFRA argues that protecting and restoring ecosystems helps build food-system resilience and reduces the risk that distant shocks turn into domestic crises.
Financing conservation is a major obstacle. Countries under tight fiscal pressure often favor short-term revenue from logging, mining or land conversion over long-term protection. Globally, spending patterns reinforce the problem: the United Nations Environment Programme estimates roughly US$7.3 trillion flows into activities that harm nature — roughly 30 times what is spent on protection. Advocates call for a dramatic reorientation of those financial flows.
Debt-for-nature swaps are one mechanism gaining traction. Dating to the 1980s, they trade creditor relief for commitments by debtor countries to fund and enforce conservation measures. The first notable deal saw Conservation International buy part of Bolivia’s debt in 1987 so the country could invest in protecting the Beni Biosphere Reserve. More recent examples include a 2021 swap in Belize that eased fiscal pressures while channeling savings into fisheries management and marine protection.
Marine protected areas can provide spillover benefits: they act as nurseries that help rebuild fish stocks, supporting catches beyond reserve boundaries. With more than 3 billion people depending on seafood for significant protein intake, such protections matter for global food security.
Private capital is entering the space as well. Large asset managers have been drawn to the bond-like returns of some nature-based deals; Legal & General pledged $1 billion toward new debt-for-nature swaps, arguing such investments support both communities and ecosystems that underpin economic resilience. When major financial institutions commit funds, they can mobilize further support and give early-stage deals greater confidence. Other initiatives, like Brazil’s Tropical Forest Forever Facility, aim to redirect investment from wealthier countries into nations that commit to halting deforestation.
Protecting forests and oceans also helps curb greenhouse gas accumulation: intact ecosystems are major carbon sinks. Preserving them reduces the likelihood of droughts, crop failures and extreme weather that can fuel instability and displacement. The human toll is already stark: by 2023, more than 90 million forcibly displaced people lived in places experiencing food crises, according to the International Organization for Migration. DEFRA warns that ecosystem collapse could trigger cascading risks — organized crime exploiting scarce resources, political polarization, and even military tensions.
Framed this way, conservation becomes a strategic investment in security as well as nature. Safeguarding and restoring ecosystems helps secure food and water, buffers climate impacts, supports livelihoods, and lowers the drivers of displacement and conflict. Redirecting financial flows — through debt swaps, public assistance, private investment and new financing facilities — could help countries preserve the natural foundations of stability and prosperity.
Edited by: Tamsin Walker and Jennifer Collins