With Hungary’s general election set for April 12, opinion polls show a tight race: challenger Peter Magyar leads longtime prime minister Viktor Orbán in some surveys, but many voters remain undecided and results vary between institutes. An IDEA poll put support at 39% for Magyar’s Tisza coalition, 30% for Orbán’s Fidesz, and 21% undecided.
A European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) study of 1,001 respondents, conducted March 26–April 1, finds that a majority of Hungarians want less friction with the EU and broadly support continued membership and adopting the euro — even as foreign policy divides persist across the electorate.
Views on EU relations
– 43% said Hungary should pursue a “very different” approach to relations with the EU; 25% favored “minor adjustments,” and 19% wanted to “keep the current approach.”
– Among Fidesz supporters, 44% preferred keeping the current approach, though 45% of those voters sought either major or minor change; the remainder were undecided.
– 91% of Tisza supporters wanted a realigned relationship with the EU.
– 77% of all respondents supported Hungary’s EU membership, and 66% backed joining the eurozone and adopting the euro.
– Only 15% said they distrust the EU overall; distrust was far higher among Orbán supporters (47%) than among Magyar supporters (32%).
Pawel Zerka, the ECFR’s polling lead, summarized that roughly two-thirds of Hungarians still trust the EU and wish to remain in the bloc despite Orbán’s long-running criticism.
Divisions over Ukraine and Russia
The survey revealed sharp partisan splits over policy toward Ukraine and Russia, central issues in the campaign after Orbán used criticism of EU Ukraine policies as a key theme.
– 77% of Fidesz supporters wanted to keep the government’s current approach to Ukraine; only 11% of Tisza supporters agreed.
– Just 26% of respondents supported providing financial aid to Ukraine; 47% of Tisza backers favored such aid.
– 56% opposed Ukraine joining the EU; 50% of Tisza supporters backed membership, while 77% of Fidesz supporters strongly opposed it.
– 36% supported allowing military aid to transit through Hungary; 77% of Fidesz supporters opposed transit, and 30% of Tisza supporters also opposed.
– 66% of Tisza supporters wanted Hungary to stop buying Russian oil (Hungary is exempt from some EU oil sanctions); 77% of Fidesz backers opposed ending purchases.
– 62% of Fidesz supporters described Ukraine as “an adversary,” while 19% of Fidesz voters called Russia an “ally” and 57% viewed Russia as a “necessary partner.”
Piotr Buras of ECFR warned that a Magyar victory would not automatically reverse Hungary’s foreign policy. He noted that skepticism about future aid to Kyiv and doubts over EU accession for Ukraine run across voter groups, so Hungary may not align fully with all EU foreign-policy positions regardless of who wins.
Other splits
The survey also found partisan differences on U.S. politics: about three in four Fidesz supporters rated Donald Trump a good U.S. leader, whereas roughly four in five Tisza supporters rated him poorly. On domestic priorities, foreign policy was seldom the top concern: only 6% named relations with the EU as the single most important issue (10% of Tisza supporters, 2% of Fidesz supporters). Tisza voters prioritized corruption and governance (31%), public services (18%) and cost of living/inflation (17%), while Fidesz voters emphasized energy security (22%) and cost of living/inflation (20%).
Both the ECFR and IDEA polls found about one in five voters undecided ahead of the vote; roughly 60% of those undecided said they would definitely turn out on election day. The balance of undecided voters means the April 12 result remains uncertain.