For decades New Delhi has cultivated a rare diplomatic balancing act: buying oil from Iran, deepening defence ties with Israel, strengthening partnership with the United States and expanding trade and labour links across the Gulf — all while insisting it would not align with regional camps or enter formal alliances. The war in Iran, however, is stretching that approach.
Faced with escalating tensions, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is embarking on a fast-paced diplomatic tour — beginning in the United Arab Emirates and moving through four European countries in a week — a sign of how urgently New Delhi feels the need to manage multiple pressures at once.
The conflict is not merely a distant energy shock. Analysts say it directly challenges the central premise of India’s West Asia policy: that it can retain strategic autonomy while sustaining close ties with rival powers. Amitabh Mattoo, dean at Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies, argues the crisis has made the diplomatic geometry “far more unforgiving.” Where strategic autonomy thrived in a fluid multipolar environment, he says, the current contest demands political loyalty, sanctions compliance and security alignment — often simultaneously.
Still, Mattoo stresses that India’s first priority will be protecting economic stability and energy supplies. New Delhi cannot afford prolonged oil-price shocks, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, or runaway domestic inflation. That instinct, he says, does not necessarily mean an outright break with partners such as the US or Israel: Washington remains indispensable for technology, defence cooperation and Indo-Pacific strategy, Israel for defence and intelligence ties, the Gulf for energy and remittances, and Iran for geography and overland access.
“India is no longer a bystander in West Asia,” Mattoo adds. “Its dependence on the region means every escalation now directly tests India’s great-power ambitions. Strategic autonomy is not a slogan — it is a stress test.” The paradox is that New Delhi’s deeper global integration makes sustained non-alignment harder to maintain when conflicts force binary choices.
Not all experts see the doctrine collapsing. T S Tirumurti, a retired diplomat and India’s first representative to the Palestinian Authority, argues the Iran war actually underlines the value of multi-alignment. Persisting with a policy that allows independent decision-making, he says, has helped India navigate regional fault lines without being forced into a single camp. Recent handling of energy needs alongside relationships with Israel and the US, he notes, supports that view.
Economic realities, however, are narrowing New Delhi’s room for manoeuvre. The Gulf supplies a large share of India’s crude oil and natural gas, and more than nine million Indians work in Gulf states; their remittances are vital to the domestic economy. The mere threat of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz reverberates through insurance costs, import calculations and financial stability.
New Delhi has responded by diversifying suppliers, boosting strategic petroleum reserves and deploying the Indian Navy to protect commercial shipping. But these measures are costly, and reserves can only cushion short shocks — not a prolonged regional conflict.
Gaddam Dharmendra, a former ambassador to Iran, emphasizes that India has been deepening ties with Gulf Cooperation Council members while preserving historically close relations with Tehran. As a net energy importer, Dharmendra says, India’s priority must be shoring up hydrocarbon supply chains; disruptions to Gulf infrastructure have put that traditional reliance under severe stress. He also points out that the US’s growing role as an oil and LNG exporter could broaden India’s energy options, suggesting the situation need not be a zero-sum choice.
The more uncomfortable question is whether the cumulative effect of India’s recent decisions is already nudging it closer to the US-Israel axis, even without a formal alignment. Shanthie Mariet D’Souza of the independent research forum Mantraya says strategic autonomy as a concept remains, but the practical ability to balance contradictory relationships is under “great duress” and could become near-impossible if the war drags on.
Despite these strains, New Delhi continues to resist formal alignment and is betting on mediation and a quick end to hostilities as the best outcome. Modi’s multi-country tour, beginning with the UAE, likely reflects efforts to marshal diplomatic support and reassure partners across the region and beyond.
In sum, the Iran war is a test of India’s multi-alignment: a challenge to preserve independent decision-making while protecting energy security, economic stability and key strategic partnerships. How New Delhi weathers this test will shape not only its policy in West Asia but also the credibility of its broader claim to strategic autonomy.