Rising tension around the Iran conflict and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz have raised real concerns that jet fuel supplies could tighten, creating headaches for passengers in the weeks and months ahead. Both the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have warned that a reduction in fuel flows could trigger wider disruption to air services.
Airlines are already passing higher fuel costs on to travelers. As kerosene prices climb, many carriers are adding surcharges or lifting fares. For example, Spanish low-cost carrier Volotea introduced a clause allowing a surcharge of up to €14 per passenger up to seven days before departure depending on kerosene price movements. Spain’s consumer group Facua has challenged the practice as unlawful, alleging opaque pricing, and has filed a complaint — and it warns other carriers might follow suit if regulators do not act.
Beyond higher fares, reduced fuel availability can force cancellations and schedule cuts. IATA has cautioned that Europe could face disruption similar to what has already been seen in parts of Asia, particularly as the busy summer travel season approaches. Some airlines have preemptively trimmed schedules; for instance, Lufthansa said it would cancel around 20,000 flights planned for the coming months. Those cancellations leave travelers wondering what help or compensation they can expect.
In the European Union, the Air Passenger Rights Regulation sets out passenger protections. If your flight is cancelled, you are generally entitled to compensation of €250 to €600 depending on route distance, plus care such as meals, accommodation and re-routing. The regulation covers flights departing EU airports (and flights arriving in the EU on EU carriers). However, no compensation is due if passengers are informed of cancellation at least two weeks before departure — a window airlines may try to use to limit liabilities.
The regulation also allows airlines to avoid paying compensation when disruptions are caused by “extraordinary circumstances” beyond their control (examples include strikes or natural disasters). Whether a jet fuel shortage qualifies depends on whether the airline can show it took all reasonable steps to operate the flight. That determination is fact-specific and likely to vary by case, so legal outcomes are uncertain; passengers should read cancellation notices closely and seek consumer-advice or legal help if they believe their rights are being denied.
Rules outside the EU are different. The United States has no single scheme equivalent to the EU regulation: each carrier sets its own policies for delays and cancellations. The US Department of Transportation notes airlines decide whether to provide meals, hotels or other assistance. For cancelled flights, US passengers are generally entitled to a refund of the ticket price but are not guaranteed standardized compensation.
The US is expected to be less exposed to a Strait-of-Hormuz fuel squeeze than Europe because it relies less on imports routed through that passage. Estimates from transport and environmental groups suggest supplies passing through the strait account for roughly 30% of kerosene demand in the EU — a level of exposure that helps explain recent cost increases. Analysts estimate additional fuel costs since the conflict began at about €29 per passenger for intra-European trips and up to €88 for intercontinental journeys, amounts that are already filtering into higher ticket prices.
Practical tips for travelers: check flight status frequently, review any cancellation or surcharge notices from your airline, know your rights under local rules (especially the EU regulation if you travel from EU airports), and keep receipts if the airline promises to cover meals or hotels. If you suspect your carrier is wrongly denying compensation or applying last-minute surcharges unfairly, contact national enforcement bodies or consumer groups for guidance.