Key points
– Roughly 58–60% of Germans think the ruling conservative‑SPD coalition will collapse before the 2029 election.
– Ifo Institute head Clemens Fuest warns Germany could enter recession if a U.S.-EU tariff spat escalates.
– Schalke 04 secured promotion back to the Bundesliga.
A new INSA poll published Sunday for Bild am Sonntag shows that a clear majority of Germans lack confidence in the durability of the current government. Fifty‑eight percent of respondents said they expect the CDU/CSU–SPD coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, sworn in on May 6 last year, to fall before the 2029 elections; 24% believe it will last the full term and 18% were undecided or did not answer. The government’s performance also scores poorly: 75% of those surveyed said they are dissatisfied with its record so far, while 16% said it is doing a good job.
The same INSA poll found shifting party support: the far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) led with 28%, ahead of the CDU/CSU bloc at 24%. The Social Democrats (SPD) were at 14%, the Greens at 13% and the Left Party at 11%. The AfD’s rise comes amid ongoing scrutiny: parts of the party have been classified as right‑wing extremist by regional intelligence services, and a federal designation by the domestic intelligence agency (BfV) is currently suspended pending appeal.
Economic concerns are compounding political uncertainty. Clemens Fuest, president of the Munich‑based Ifo Institute, warned that Germany could slip into recession in 2026 if a trade conflict with the United States intensifies. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he would raise tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the EU to 25%, accusing the bloc of failing to uphold a trade deal. Brussels denies the charge and has not ruled out retaliatory measures. In July 2025, Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to cap tariffs on most EU imports, including cars and parts, at 15%, but that deal has not yet received full approval from the EU and is not expected to be finalised until June. The United States remains a crucial market for German automakers such as Porsche, BMW and Mercedes‑Benz, making any tariff escalation a significant risk for Germany’s export‑driven economy.
Sporting highlight: Schalke promotion
Schalke 04 sealed a return to the Bundesliga after three seasons in the second division with a 1‑0 home victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf in Gelsenkirchen. Captain Kenan Karaman scored the decisive goal. Tens of thousands of supporters celebrated late into the night; police said celebrations were largely under control despite traffic and tram disruptions. Coach Miron Mušić, who guided the side to promotion, has extended his contract until 2028. Schalke remains one of Europe’s most well‑supported clubs, with about 200,000 members.
Other developments
DW’s Bonn newsroom also highlighted broader developments, including the economic outlook in light of tariff threats and a U.S. plan to withdraw thousands of troops from Germany in the coming months.
What this means
The poll underscores fragile public confidence in the new coalition and growing voter volatility, illustrated by the AfD’s lead in this survey. At the same time, external economic risks — notably potential tariff escalation between the U.S. and EU — could magnify domestic political pressure if they hit Germany’s export sectors. Meanwhile, high‑profile events such as Schalke’s promotion continue to capture public attention amid a tense political and economic backdrop.