The first of five regional votes in 2026, held in affluent Baden-Württemberg, ended with an unexpected win for the Greens, frustrating Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his center-right CDU, which had hoped to take back the state.
An election-day poll found more than 70% of voters in Baden-Württemberg unhappy with federal government policies. Merz, however, rejected a direct link between that dissatisfaction and his party’s setback, calling the outcome “primarily a personal victory for Cem Özdemir.” Özdemir, 60, narrowly prevailed and is poised to become state premier while forming a coalition that will keep the CDU in government alongside the Greens. On election night, Özdemir told DW the Greens will join a new government with the CDU.
During the campaign, Özdemir deliberately distanced himself from more left-leaning Green positions. He avoided pushing for aggressive climate measures such as banning gasoline cars—an approach sensitive in a state dominated by a crisis-hit automotive sector that includes companies like Porsche and Mercedes.
Özdemir will also make history as the first state premier in the Federal Republic whose parents were born outside Germany; they emigrated from Turkey in the 1960s.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), a coalition partner in Berlin, suffered a severe blow, securing only 5.5% of the vote. SPD figures including federal ministers Lars Klingbeil and Bärbel Bas struggled to account for the poor showing. Bas conceded the party had failed to convince working-class voters and said the SPD will refocus on protecting industrial jobs and lowering energy prices.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) increased its share substantially from five years earlier, reaching 18.8%. AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla declared the party “mainstream” in Baden-Württemberg, though both the CDU and the Greens have ruled out cooperating with the AfD.
Both the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Left party fell short of the 5% electoral threshold and will not enter the state parliament. The FDP had aimed to return to the regional assembly as part of a broader comeback after failing to re-enter the federal Bundestag in the 2025 election following the collapse of the Greens–SPD–FDP federal coalition.
Baden-Württemberg, home to just over 11 million people, is one of Germany’s strongest economic regions and a center of the automotive industry, alongside many family-run businesses. It shares borders with France and Switzerland.
Attention now turns to the next regional ballot in two weeks in Rhineland-Palatinate, where the SPD currently governs and polls indicate a tight contest with the CDU.
This article was originally written in German.