The first two state elections of the year are over and scrutiny has shifted back to the federal government. After taking office in May 2025, Chancellor Friedrich Merz pledged an “autumn of reforms” that never materialized. The CDU/CSU–SPD coalition had for weeks held off on decisive action to avoid alienating voters in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, but prolonged inaction and political gridlock have begun to show in public opinion.
A Deutschlandtrend poll by infratest dimap for broadcaster ARD, conducted with 1,316 eligible voters over the last two days of March, finds widespread dissatisfaction. Eighty-four percent of respondents say they are dissatisfied with the government’s performance — the highest level of discontent since Merz took office. Approval ratings for the government’s two most prominent figures have slipped to new lows: Merz’s approval stands at 21% (down 8 points) and Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil at 18% (down 15 points).
Party support mirrors the slump in approval. The CDU/CSU is at 26% (down 2 points from last March) while the SPD is at 12% (down 2), returning to its 2019 low. The AfD has risen to 25% (+2), the Greens to 14% (+1), and the Left to 10% (+1). The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the FDP remain at 3% each, below the 5% parliamentary threshold.
Economic worries are central to voter concerns. Germany has experienced three years of recession followed by a year of stagnation, shrinking industrial output and prompting some production and jobs to relocate abroad. Early signs of recovery were undermined by the war in Iran, and the risk of sustained high energy prices could reignite inflation. Seventy percent of respondents say they do not trust the government to take the measures needed to improve the economy.
The coalition has outlined a mix of short- and long-term measures aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting competitiveness: targeted tax cuts, lower energy prices, incentives for investment, reduced bureaucracy, and further consumer relief measures planned after Easter.
On labor and migration policy, the government is considering allowing longer fixed-term contracts — an idea that splits the public (48% in favor, 44% opposed). There is strong cross-party backing for fast-tracking recognition of foreign professional qualifications so migrants can enter the workforce more quickly: 74% of respondents support this. Support among AfD voters is lower (48%) but ranges from 83% to 95% among supporters of other parties.
Tax and social-policy debates remain contentious. To increase labor force participation, the coalition is weighing the abolition of the “spousal splitting” tax benefit; 54% oppose abolishing it and 32% support the change. There is overwhelming rejection (91%) of a general rise in value-added tax. Overall, 66% feel their personal tax burden is too high, while 28% think it is appropriate. About 76% favor tax relief for low- and middle-income groups combined with higher taxes on top earners.
Demographic change is adding pressure to pensions, health care and long-term care systems: fewer workers will be supporting more retirees while demand for elderly care rises rapidly. Seventy-four percent of respondents do not trust the government to make social security sustainable. Three expert commissions are preparing reform proposals; the health commission published its findings at the end of March. Among the health commission’s proposals, a majority of citizens support higher taxes on alcohol, tobacco and soft drinks. At the same time, similarly large shares oppose higher co-payments for medications and treatments, ending free spouse coverage, or capping reimbursements for private practitioners and hospitals.
The survey paints a picture of a government struggling to translate promises into action while citizens grow increasingly skeptical about its economic and social policy responses. Whether the coalition’s planned measures after Easter will reverse the trends in public trust and party support remains an open question.
This article was originally written in German.