A campaign operative told NPR that when an unreleased outside poll showed their candidate far ahead in a close statewide Southern race, they and other staffers used the tip to buy contracts on prediction markets before the poll became public. Speaking on condition of anonymity because they feared employment consequences, the staffer said the outside poll diverged from the campaign’s internal numbers but still pushed market prices — and “sure enough as soon as that poll came out, the stock went up and everybody made money.”
NPR confirmed the wager by examining prediction market data. These platforms are financial-style exchanges where users trade contracts that pay if a future event happens, including elections; they handle billions of dollars in activity weekly. The staffer said their biggest win was “thousands” of dollars and that using nonpublic campaign information to place such bets was routine on that campaign and others.
Their method, they said, was simple: when someone tipped them to an unreleased poll, they compared its implications to market odds on sites like PredictIt and Polymarket. If the poll implied a greater chance of victory than the market did, they purchased low-cost event contracts betting their candidate would win. Prediction market prices are often treated as probabilities (for example, a $0.20 price implies roughly a 20% chance). After the poll’s publication pushed prices up, the staffer sold the contracts for a gain.
Jeff Le Riche, a former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) trial lawyer who handled insider-trading and market-manipulation cases, said such trades “could potentially be a violation” and might prompt a CFTC probe. The CFTC oversees many prediction markets and permits some election-related contracts. Le Riche noted that gambling on material nonpublic information could violate the Commodity Exchange Act when the bettor owes a duty not to use that information. He said investigators would examine employment contracts and the prediction platforms’ user agreements to determine whether breaches occurred that could lead to probes or prosecutions.
Le Riche warned that the lack of early enforcement has created an “illusion of safety.” Another anonymous staffer who worked on East Coast statewide races told NPR they saw colleagues place similar bets when their internal polls suggested markets were mispriced. “They were like, ‘I’m going to go make a quick $5,000,’ ” that staffer recalled. They added that in the earlier 2020s, with fewer participants and thinner markets, it was easier to exploit perceived pricing gaps.
Former CFTC commissioner Kristin Johnson questioned whether the agency is ready to police election-related insider trading, saying the commission lacks experience prosecuting such cases and that courts have not clearly determined how insider-trading laws apply to political event contracts. She also expressed concern about enforcement staffing and urged Congress to give the CFTC clearer authority over political-event markets.
The regulatory and political response has intensified. The White House warned executive-branch staff against using prediction markets, and the Senate unanimously approved a measure barring senators and their staff from trading on them. Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) called that a “good first step” and urged broader bans on federal officials and employees using insider information to wager. Those measures, however, do not extend to campaign staffers. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) has banned prediction-market trading within his House office and campaign; his campaign manager said the prohibition was added to the employee handbook after a staff meeting.
Election betting has been legal in limited forms for years. In 2014 the CFTC allowed a constrained set of election wagers on PredictIt, which operates as a nonprofit research site. For-profit platforms such as Kalshi later expanded into political markets, drawing large legal betting volumes. Polymarket also runs election markets but mostly operates offshore and outside U.S. regulation. Lawmakers have proposed bipartisan bills to restrict or ban political and war betting by insiders, but none have become law.
Reports of suspected insider trades have continued. Kalshi recently banned and fined several political candidates for wagering on their own races and in April suspended and fined users after an internal probe found candidates betting on their own contests. The company said it has taken enforcement actions in other insider-trading incidents, including against a prominent YouTuber’s editor and a California gubernatorial candidate who publicly acknowledged betting on his campaign.
NPR has also examined high-profile trades on prediction markets: a Polymarket account that earned about $300,000 by betting on last-minute presidential pardons, and a $553,000 wager on Polymarket tied to Iran and its supreme leader placed shortly before an Israeli strike. Those episodes have intensified scrutiny about timing and access to sensitive information.
Regulators are moving to clarify their stance. In February the CFTC issued guidance asserting its authority over prediction markets and advised platforms to list only contracts “not readily susceptible to manipulation.” In April, members of the House Agriculture Committee questioned Michael Selig, the commission’s sole board member, about his role in clearing regulatory paths for these platforms; Selig has defended the industry and is leading suits against state efforts to limit it.
Platforms themselves have increased internal enforcement: Kalshi’s recent suspensions and fines reflect growing scrutiny. But comprehensive rules addressing campaign staffers’ use of nonpublic political information for market bets remain limited. While lawmakers and some offices have tightened restrictions for elected officials and their staff, campaign employees largely operate in a legal gray area.
The Southern campaign staffer who profited said they sold after the outside poll was published and then used their winnings to place further bets when strengthening internal polling reinforced their confidence. “I basically took the money that I won and just reinvested it to win more money,” they said.