A month after the outbreak of a war involving Iran, African governments and fuel suppliers are struggling to keep petrol and diesel flowing. Shortages and price spikes are already apparent in several countries, exposing an overreliance on imports and limited domestic refining capacity.
Kenya is reporting roughly 20% shortages at some petrol stations, a gap officials attribute largely to panic buying. The country normally holds only two to three weeks’ worth of fuel demand in stock, leaving it vulnerable to any sustained disruption in global supplies.
Tanzania has seen pump prices rise more than 30%—levels not seen since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Current stocks could meet demand for about another month, making further price rises likely if the situation persists.
Ethiopia has ordered suppliers to prioritize deliveries to state projects and major industries, while fuel shipments to the Tigray region have been suspended amid fears of renewed conflict. In South Sudan, which has promising oil reserves, very limited refining capacity means most crude is exported and the small volumes refined are primarily used to generate a weak and unreliable national electricity supply.
Attiya Waris, an independent UN expert on foreign debt and human rights, warned the crisis could deepen energy and industrial distress. “On average in most African countries, we still have only 40% electricity penetration,” she said, adding that people already on the grid face a real risk of growing power shortages. Waris also noted that debts to the IMF and private creditors can force oil-producing countries to export petroleum to service those obligations rather than supply domestic markets. She warned that global petroleum depletion has already contributed to factory shutdowns in some places.
Africa’s biggest oil producer, Nigeria, is trying to expand its refining output through state-run plants and the large private Dangote refinery near Lagos. Dangote’s production is rising, but neglected state refineries mean Nigeria still exports much of its crude and imports many refined products.
Waris urged quick market interventions—price controls and other measures—to protect domestic fuel access. She pointed out that other regions have used movement restrictions or temporary closures to conserve fuel for essential uses, but such measures have not been widely adopted across Africa.
South Africa offers a recent example of political debate over responses. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s coalition has agreed steps to reduce the burden at the pump, with the opposition Democratic Alliance pushing to cut fuel levies to help consumers. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana warned that immediate levy cuts so soon after finalizing the budget could be premature without clearer insight into the war’s duration and economic impact. James Lorimer of the DA said South Africa’s exposure is limited because only about 20% of its crude imports come from the Middle East and suggested securing refined product from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery. Minerals Minister Gwede Mantashe has proposed restarting decommissioned refineries, though that would carry significant environmental and cost implications.
Governments across the continent face a choice between short-term interventions to protect consumers and longer-term investments in storage, refining and diversified supply chains to reduce vulnerability to future geopolitical shocks. Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu