A year after President Trump imposed double-digit tariffs on most U.S. imports, the policy is still central to trade strategy even as parts of it have been scaled back. The Supreme Court has curtailed some measures, but tariffs continue to shape revenue, industry behavior and inflation.
Tariff revenue and refunds
Tariffs produced tens of billions in federal receipts. In the first five months of the fiscal year, the government collected about $151 billion from tariffs — nearly four times the take in the same period a year earlier. Much of that cost was borne by U.S. importers and, in some cases, passed on to consumers. After a Supreme Court ruling that the president exceeded his authority for certain tariffs, roughly half of the total revenue will need to be returned. Customs officials are preparing to refund about $166 billion in improperly collected duties, with details expected by mid-April.
Manufacturing and investment
The administration argued tariffs would revive U.S. manufacturing, but the hoped-for boom has not materialized. Factory employment was about 89,000 lower in February than in April, when the tariffs took effect. Officials point to foreign companies investing in U.S. facilities to avoid tariffs, but official data show foreign direct investment last year was $288 billion — slightly below the prior year and under the 10-year average.
Inflation and the goods sector
Inflation has eased from its 2022 peak but remains above the Federal Reserve’s comfort level, in part because tariffs have raised goods prices. Consumer inflation in February was 2.4%, a bit higher than last April. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said recent elevated readings largely reflect higher prices in the goods sector, influenced by tariffs. Economists also caution that inflationary pressure could intensify after the U.S. and Israel began military action against Iran, a development that pushed global energy prices higher.
Trade flows and the deficit
Imports proved volatile as businesses stockpiled ahead of tariff changes and during temporary rate cuts. Over 2025, Americans imported slightly more goods than in 2024: goods imports totaled $3.4 trillion, up 4%, while exports were $2.2 trillion, up 6%. The goods trade deficit widened by about 2% to roughly $1.24 trillion.
Tariff levels and changes
Average tariff rates spiked around the initial announcements, briefly topping 21%. At one point, some Chinese goods faced tariffs as high as 145%, which nearly halted imports from that country. The administration later reduced many rates, and the Supreme Court eliminated some tariffs entirely. By February, the Tax Foundation estimated the average tariff on imports at about 10% — roughly half the peak level but about four times higher than the average before the president returned to office.
Volatility and business uncertainty
Tariff policy has been highly volatile: the Tax Foundation counted more than 50 tariff changes between the initial imposition and now. That unpredictability, combined with higher import taxes, has complicated planning for businesses and likely contributed to slower hiring and weaker economic growth by influencing investment decisions and raising costs.