New Hampshire relies on revenue from regulated sports wagering but officials worry the rise of prediction markets could siphon off bets and tax receipts. Since the state legalized sports gambling in 2019 after the U.S. Supreme Court decision, a partnership with DraftKings has generated more than $170 million for state programs. That stream of money, combined with the political attention of March Madness brackets, has made the expanding prediction-market sector a concern for some lawmakers.
State Sen. Tim Lang, a Republican, says he’s introducing legislation aimed at enabling New Hampshire to join other states in legal action against firms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Those companies sell simple “yes” or “no” contracts on events ranging from elections to sporting outcomes, and they contend they are financial markets overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than traditional sportsbooks. Because of that classification, states say they can’t collect the same share of proceeds as they do from regulated sports-betting operators.
“We have a revenue model for our sports betting that allows us to pay for education and other state services that Kalshi is completely going around by avoiding our gaming laws,” Lang said. “They should not be able to skirt our state laws.”
Prediction-market firms argue that federal oversight by the CFTC preempts fifty separate state regulatory regimes, a position that has drawn backing from the Trump administration. Courts have issued mixed rulings so far, leaving key legal questions unresolved — especially whether certain contracts constitute sports gambling or lawful financial trading.
“Is sports betting and prediction market synonymous, or are they sufficiently distinct that there should be different treatment under the law? I mean, that’s an open-ended question,” said Michael McCann, director of the University of New Hampshire’s Sports and Entertainment Law Institute.
Several states are already in court with prediction-market operators: Connecticut, Michigan and Washington have pursued litigation, and Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi for offering wagers it says were illegal. Kalshi and Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment in this report.
Not everyone in New Hampshire favors aggressive enforcement. John Stephen, a Republican member of the council that approves state contracts, welcomed the competition and the entrepreneurial activity behind new platforms.
Todd Bookman, New Hampshire Public Radio.