Waiting at a Washington, D.C., gate for a flight back to Atlanta, Lee Collins is reconsidering how often he’ll fly to visit family this year. He’s not alone: high ticket prices are prompting many travelers to shorten itineraries, choose closer destinations or skip trips altogether.
For James and Lea Ridgeway, the math has been stark. They already paid hundreds for concert tickets to see The Cure in Ireland, but the flights they planned—business class with multiple connections—have climbed by thousands of dollars, leaving them to weigh whether the trip is still worth it.
The main driver is jet fuel, which roughly doubled in price after the war in Iran began. Carriers have passed much of that increase onto passengers; travel site Kayak reported that the average international fare in mid-April ran about $150 higher than a year earlier. Not every route has jumped by thousands, but pricey itineraries and premium cabins have seen the biggest increases.
Airlines may also keep some fares elevated even if fuel costs fall. United’s CEO Scott Kirby has said the carrier could hold certain prices to shore up thin profit margins, a stance that has drawn criticism from lawmakers such as Rep. Ritchie Torres, who has urged airlines to commit to cutting fares when fuel prices drop.
Travel sellers are already feeling the impact. Arlene Hogan, owner of travel advisor Vacays4U, says fall bookings are down roughly 10 percent, with most summer trips booked earlier when fares were lower. At industry gatherings, other agents reported similar dips. Yet the picture isn’t uniform: Terry Dale of the U.S. Tour Operators Association says his members haven’t seen broad cancellations, noting that some travelers are cushioned by gains in investments and continue to fly, while groups like students are traveling more cautiously.
One clear shift is from long-haul international travel toward domestic trips. Europe has been hit by fuel supply problems and capacity cuts—Lufthansa announced plans to cancel about 20,000 flights through October—and North American carriers have adjusted schedules as well. Air Canada temporarily suspended service to New York’s JFK because of jet fuel costs, and United has been “tactically pruning” flights at off-peak times such as overnight and Saturdays.
Many Americans are choosing destinations they perceive as safer and more reliable, even if they’re pricier in other ways. Hawaii, for example, remains in demand because it’s inside the U.S. travel system and feels less risky to some travelers.
For people like Collins, the result may simply be fewer plane trips. “It’s going to be a staycation this year,” he says, reflecting a broader trend: with airfare volatility likely to persist, more travelers are reshaping plans to stay closer to home.