In 2020 Ethiopia’s federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, postponed national elections because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the dominant party in the northern Tigray region, rejected that move as unconstitutional, organized its own local polls, and denied federal authority over Tigray. That dispute escalated into open conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF).
Fighting between 2020 and 2022 caused a catastrophic humanitarian toll, with estimates of around 600,000 deaths and widespread destruction. Both sides accused the other of starting the war. In November 2022 the Pretoria peace agreement sought to end the open conflict. The agreement annulled the contested 2020 local election results and established an Interim Regional Administration in Tigray that sidelined the TPLF’s wartime leadership.
Since the peace deal, tensions have persisted. After roughly three years of uneasy arrangements, relations between the Interim Regional Administration and the TPLF deteriorated. In April the TPLF restored the Tigray State Council, an institution that had been dissolved under the peace terms. On May 5 TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael was declared president of Tigray; party officials said the interim administration no longer existed and that TPLF leaders were resuming control.
That move confronted Tadesse Werede, the president of the Tigray Transitional Administration appointed by the federal government. Werede publicly condemned attempts to seize power by force and said he would not step aside voluntarily. Observers warn that any forcible removal of the interim administration would be illegitimate and could reignite major violence.
The federal government had not issued an official response at the time of reporting, leaving significant uncertainty about how Addis Ababa will react. Analysts and journalists reported signs of military mobilization: on May 5 and 6 Ethiopian military jets were observed over Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, and ENDF units have reportedly repositioned in neighboring Amhara and Afar regions. Defense infrastructure along northern access routes to Addis Ababa also appears to be expanding.
Ethiopia today faces multiple internal armed challenges beyond the TPLF, including Fano militias in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia. That domestic instability sits alongside rising regional tensions involving Eritrea and Sudan. Eritrea remains a particularly volatile factor; it regards any Ethiopian moves toward the port of Assab as a potential threat to its sovereignty and has sought regional alignments and influence.
Experts say the TPLF remains Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s biggest political and military challenge and that Abiy has become more internationally isolated amid allegations of ties with the United Arab Emirates and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces. The TPLF was effectively banned as a political party in Ethiopia last year, but analysts say Abiy has been unable to dislodge the group from its old networks or to install a loyal local opposition in Tigray.
Observers describe Eritrea as pursuing a strategy of deterrence and influence: building alliances with external partners and local actors inside Ethiopia, and preparing to deter or respond to any future Ethiopian military moves. Some analysts argue that Eritrea benefits from instability in neighboring states, using regional conflict to bolster its security and geopolitical position.
Wider geopolitical currents also shape the crisis. The war in Iran and other regional conflicts have economic spillovers for the Horn of Africa, contributing to fuel shortages and inflation in Ethiopia. Those pressures could limit the capacity or appetite for immediate escalation by the central government. Gulf states such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, previously active players in Horn of Africa politics and port projects like Assab, appear to be more focused on other regional priorities, reducing the likelihood of decisive outside intervention for the moment.
There are signs Washington is paying renewed attention to Eritrea, including discussion of easing sanctions, though human rights concerns remain acute. International mediators still have some room to operate, and analysts say diplomacy could avert a full return to large-scale war, but the situation is fragile and could deteriorate rapidly if military confrontations intensify.
In short, the restoration of TPLF control in Tigray and the federal government’s unclear response have raised alarms about a new round of violence and the risk of broader Ethiopia-Eritrea confrontation. The outcome will depend on whether parties choose negotiation and international mediation or pursue force, and on how regional and global actors recalibrate their involvement amid competing crises and economic constraints.