The United Arab Emirates announced it would leave OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance effective May 1, 2026. Emirati Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on X that the move “reflects a policy-driven evolution aligned with long-term market fundamentals” and that the UAE must now “focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates and our commitment to our investors, customers, partners and global energy markets.”
According to the WAM news agency, recent disruptions in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz helped prompt the decision. As part of the wider US-Israel war with Iran, Tehran launched thousands of drones and missiles that struck the UAE, killing civilians and damaging infrastructure and oil facilities, while also targeting US bases. Abu Dhabi’s calls for a collective Gulf military response to reopen the Hormuz shipping route — vital for about one-fifth of global oil flows, including much of the UAE’s — failed to gain consensus, with Saudi Arabia favoring diplomacy instead.
Analysts say the timing reflects both immediate tensions and longer-running strategic thinking. Kristian Alexander of the Rabdan Security and Defense Institute argues that the move was grounded in logic predating the Iran conflict. With Gulf exports limited and oil markets tight, leaving OPEC+ lets Abu Dhabi present the step as improving its ability to respond to future supply needs. Once access through Hormuz normalizes, Alexander says, the UAE can act more like a commercially agile exporter rather than one constrained by cartel discipline.
Sami Hamdi of The International Interest notes the announcement coincided with a Saudi-hosted summit aimed at unifying regional leaders on Iran and Hormuz, suggesting a political message to Riyadh: the UAE will not be led by Saudi Arabia. Hamdi speculated the UAE might even consider withdrawing from other regional bodies such as the Gulf Cooperation Council or the Arab League, though a UAE official told Reuters no further exits are planned for now. Gulf analysts, including Cinzia Bianco of the European Council on Foreign Relations, believe more UAE moves are likely, pointing to signs of frustration with regional partners.
The decision escalates existing strains between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. Even before the recent dispute over Hormuz, the two states were backing opposing sides in conflicts in Sudan, Libya and Yemen. Both remain close US partners, but the UAE normalized relations with Israel in 2020 while Saudi Arabia stalled such steps after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and the ensuing Gaza war. Abu Dhabi places strong strategic value on ties with Washington and Israel while pursuing independent policies on energy, investment, relations with China, and regional diplomacy.
Alexander expects the UAE and Saudi Arabia to avoid an immediate open rupture, since Gulf unity still provides security benefits. However, he warns competition between the two could intensify across oil market share, logistics, tourism, financial services, technology and AI investment, and efforts to attract foreign direct investment.
Domestic economic plans also factor into the move. Emirati President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have been investing heavily in national transformation programs — UAE 2031 and Saudi Vision 2030 — aimed at diversifying away from oil by building hubs for digital infrastructure, tourism and finance. Saudi Arabia, the largest OPEC oil exporter, has for years prioritized higher oil prices over raising output. By contrast, the UAE has invested to increase production capacity but, under OPEC+ constraints, could not fully monetize that capacity.
The UAE already has longstanding energy buyers in Asia — China, India, Japan and South Korea — so increased output would not require finding new markets. There are also macroeconomic implications: the dirham is pegged to the US dollar and global oil trade is overwhelmingly dollar-denominated, so higher UAE oil exports would boost foreign-exchange inflows, fiscal surpluses and confidence in macroeconomic stability.
For now, officials say no further institutional exits are planned. Still, analysts see the OPEC withdrawal as a significant step in Abu Dhabi’s effort to prioritize national economic strategy and strategic autonomy amid heightened regional tensions.
Edited by: Rob Mudge