The Trump administration on March 5 issued a 30-day waiver permitting Indian refiners to resume purchases of Russian oil, a temporary step intended to ease global supply strains after recent attacks on Iran and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the measure a “stop-gap” and said Washington might consider further easing sanctions by “unsanctioning” Russian crude already at sea.
The move represents a notable policy shift. When President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an interim trade deal last month, India had agreed to reduce purchases of Russian oil — a point of repeated criticism by Trump. US officials say the short-term license is narrowly targeted and should not substantially enrich the Kremlin because it applies only to cargoes already loaded onto vessels before March 5 and delivered to Indian buyers.
Surging oil prices, which climbed near $119 a barrel before slipping below $110, prompted the US and other G7 members to seek ways to blunt the shock. As the world’s third-largest crude importer, India can absorb barrels already circulating in global markets and thus quickly increase available supply, US officials argued.
Under the temporary license, transactions involving Russian crude and petroleum products are authorized only for ships loaded before March 5 if they are ultimately delivered to India and purchased by Indian companies. Ben Hilgenstock, a sanctions specialist at the Kyiv School of Economics, said Washington is looking for quick fixes and that stranded Russian cargoes are an obvious short-term source. Bessent noted there are “hundreds of millions of sanctioned barrels” at sea that, if un-sanctioned, could boost supply.
For India, the waiver offers immediate relief. New Delhi increased purchases of discounted Russian oil after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine but agreed earlier in 2025 to pull back under sustained US pressure. That retreat was manageable while global prices were lower and alternative supplies were available. Indian refineries typically keep less than a month’s crude on hand, leaving them vulnerable to supply shocks and price spikes; analysts say the waiver helps maintain feedstock availability and gives refiners a short-term cushion.
India had substituted much Russian crude with purchases from Middle Eastern suppliers — Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — but about half of its imports transit the Strait of Hormuz, which leaves it exposed to disruptions. Russia had already been redirecting some cargoes toward Indian waters in anticipation of a potential reprieve. Market observers expect the waiver to have a modest downward effect on prices; if barrels that would otherwise have gone to China or other Asian buyers are redirected to India, the overall market impact may be limited.
Had India really stopped buying Russian oil? Since Washington relaxed tariffs to secure New Delhi’s February agreement to curb purchases, Indian refiners cut buys by roughly half from a June 2025 peak. That decline was expected to continue before the recent strikes on Iran. Analysts caution the 30-day measure is temporary and does not eliminate India’s longer-term exposure to Middle Eastern supply risks; refiners would prefer a longer extension to keep access to competitively priced Russian barrels while maintaining a diversified crude slate.
Will the reprieve materially help Russia? If the waiver is not extended, analysts say it is unlikely to significantly boost Russian revenues because other Asian buyers would likely have taken the oil anyway. Russia’s energy revenues fell about 20% in 2025 as lower prices and sanctions — notably affecting Rosneft and Lukoil — depressed returns and forced deeper discounts. Hilgenstock points out that Russian benchmark prices have at times fallen to around $30 a barrel, creating severe strain, and any temporary gains from Middle East disruptions would likely fade once the conflict subsides and sanctions remain.
Critics argue that loosening sanctions to address immediate market disruptions risks weakening long-term resolve, noting a pattern of targeted rollbacks to ease price pressures. Bessent’s remark about potentially “unsanctioning” oil already at sea highlights the US willingness to use narrow exceptions to stabilize markets.
This report was updated to reflect Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s suggestion that sanctions on additional Russian oil might be eased.