At the outset of the recent conflict with Iran, then‑President Donald Trump articulated explicit goals: Tehran should no longer pose a nuclear or conventional military threat, and the clerical leadership should be weakened or removed. Senior US officials have offered differing rationales since the strikes began; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth went so far as to call it ‘not a so‑called regime change war.’ Given the United States’ long record, however, regime change has frequently been part of Washington’s playbook.
The US has a deep and varied history of efforts to reshape foreign governments. One 2019 study identified roughly 72 US attempts during the Cold War (1947–1989) to shift the international balance in its favor, 64 of which were covert intelligence operations, with an overall success rate near 40 percent. A high‑profile early example was the 1953 CIA‑ and MI6‑backed removal of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh and the subsequent restoration of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The shah’s close relationship with the United States helped feed perceptions of US interference and was one factor contributing to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, whose aftermath continues to influence regional tensions.
Even when interventions produced immediate tactical gains, the long‑term outcomes have often been complicated or counterproductive. A selection of cases illustrates the mixed legacy of US overt and covert regime‑change efforts.
Libya (2011)
During the Arab Spring, mounting opposition to Muammar Gaddafi prompted international intervention. The US, France and the UK supported Libya’s National Transitional Council and carried out air operations as part of NATO’s Operation Unified Protector. In October 2011 a US drone and a French jet struck Gaddafi’s convoy; he was later killed by rebel fighters. Nearly 15 years later, Libya remains fragmented, with competing authorities and persistent instability.
Iraq (2003)
After the ouster of Saddam Hussein, President George W. Bush declared major combat over in May 2003 and promised a transition to democracy. Instead, the occupation, weak institutions, sectarian divisions and growing Iranian influence helped create a security vacuum that extremist groups exploited, most notably the so‑called Islamic State (ISIS). US planners had often assumed that removing a dictator would allow liberal democratic institutions to take root quickly—an assumption that proved optimistic.
Afghanistan (2001)
Four weeks after the 9/11 attacks, the US launched Operation Enduring Freedom and quickly toppled the Taliban government. A US‑backed administration followed, but after international forces drew down from 2014 onward, the Taliban regained territory. A conditional withdrawal agreement negotiated under Donald Trump and the final US pullout in 2021 preceded a rapid return of the Taliban to power and a reversion toward pre‑invasion governance.
Panama (1989)
Manuel Noriega, once a CIA asset, became a problem as his drug‑trafficking activities and authoritarian rule threatened US interests in the region. After Noriega rejected the 1989 election results favoring Guillermo Endara, President George H. W. Bush launched Operation Just Cause in December 1989. Endara was installed and Noriega surrendered; Noriega later served prison sentences abroad. The operation cost was later reported at about $331 million.
Grenada (1983)
When internal turmoil and a pivot toward the Soviet bloc followed the deposition and assassination of Grenadian leader Maurice Bishop, President Ronald Reagan ordered an invasion supported by several Caribbean states. The UK objected to US action in its traditional sphere of influence; after US forces withdrew, a British governor supervised a transition and elections in 1984.
Dominican Republic (1965)
In the face of coups and civil unrest, the Organization of American States endorsed US intervention in 1965. President Lyndon B. Johnson sent troops, officially to protect American citizens but also to prevent what US policymakers feared might become a Cuban‑style socialist turn. Up to 44,400 US personnel were involved, ensuring a government aligned with US preferences took power.
Venezuela (2026)
One of the most recent and unresolved episodes occurred in early January 2026, when US actors arranged for Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to be removed and brought to New York to face charges described as ‘drug terrorism.’ Maduro’s former deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, assumed leadership; although part of the prior regime, the US expressed willingness to engage with her in exchange for oil access. Opposition figure María Corina Machado, a 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate and an ally of Trump, announced plans to return to lead a transition. Two months after the intervention, Venezuela’s trajectory remained uncertain.
These examples show a recurrent pattern: US interventions have ranged from clandestine intelligence operations to overt military invasions, and outcomes frequently diverged from initial promises. Short‑term tactical gains have often been followed by prolonged instability, unforeseen consequences, and complicated regional dynamics that persist for decades.
This article was originally published in German.