Diplomatic and commercial ties that had been severed are slowly being restored in Venezuela. Spanish carrier Iberia has resumed flights to Caracas and American Airlines has announced plans to return. Paraguay is pressing to lift Venezuela’s suspension from the South American trade bloc Mercosur during its pro-tempore presidency — a move that could influence the European Union’s pending Mercosur free-trade agreement set to provisionally take effect on May 1.
The country’s economic outlook has shifted markedly in the months since Nicolás Maduro was removed from power in a controversial military operation by the US. Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, is treating its oil industry as central to recovery after years of sanctions from the US, EU and others. Long lines at gas stations have shortened or disappeared, and Venezuela reported average monthly crude exports above 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in March — the highest since September. By comparison, 2024 output averaged just over 893,000 bpd. That rise runs counter to a broader trend: OPEC reported crude production fell by 27% in March amid the US–Israeli war with Iran.
Foreign energy companies are moving back into the country. Spain’s Repsol said it will resume operations after meetings between its executives and acting president Delcy Rodríguez, though it gave few details. US major Chevron announced plans to expand extraction following talks with Venezuelan officials. Rodríguez praised the agreements as production-boosting deals that would deliver direct revenue for Venezuelans and Americans.
Chevron’s arrangements with state-owned PDVSA involved asset swaps that left the company with nearly half of the Petroindependencia joint venture and granted rights to develop a new area in the Orinoco Belt, Venezuela’s principal oil-producing region.
But analysts caution that many of the deals lack transparency. Ronald Balza, head of economics and social sciences at Caracas’s Andrés Bello Catholic University, told DW that oil dealings remain hard for outsiders to monitor. The US has not provided consistent, transparent payments for Venezuelan oil deliveries, which complicates forecasting for prices, jobs and public spending.
Political legitimacy and security concerns are also unresolved. The current interim government under Rodríguez has not been established through a democratic process. Harvard economist Ricardo Hausmann described the situation as dictatorial in an interview with Madrid-based The Objective, arguing that US influence must be paired with guarantees of freedom, security and political rights for opposition figures such as María Corina Machado.
Machado, who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and later presented the medal to former US president Donald Trump as a symbolic gesture, remains in exile citing security concerns since the last contested election. From abroad she continues to push a sharply pro-market program. At the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston she told executives that under her vision “Venezuela is going fully private,” arguing the state should focus on rule-setting and contract enforcement while stepping back from commercial activity.
For now, Rodríguez is the acting president and has been actively courting US and other foreign investors, attending international investment forums and loosening regulations to attract private capital. Her outreach and steps to open the oil sector to private firms would have been improbable only months ago.
European companies are also being watched for roles in reconstruction. Local reporting has speculated that German industrial conglomerate Siemens could be involved in rebuilding the power grid — a priority many view as essential to sustained growth and higher oil output. Paul Márquez of Fedecámaras in Zulia told Banca y Negocios that without stable electricity, any rise in oil production would be impossible. Siemens said it is closely monitoring developments, assessing potential impacts on operations and prioritizing employee safety.
Venezuela now stands at a crossroads. Renewed diplomatic openings and rising oil exports have rekindled hopes for recovery, but opaque commercial deals, unresolved questions about political legitimacy and lingering security risks leave the country suspended between opportunity and uncertainty.
This article was originally published in German.