Bulgaria faces a defining moment: will the country slide toward an illiberal, Hungary-style model, or will a long-standing system of corruption finally be dismantled? Those questions dominate political debate after former president Rumen Radev’s new formation, Progressive Bulgaria — a rapid alliance of three small parties he assembled — won the April 19 parliamentary election and appears likely to command an absolute majority.
Radev ran a deliberately fuzzy campaign on many specifics, leaving voters and analysts uncertain about his priorities and whom he will partner with. His background and past positions, however, offer important indicators of how he might govern.
A brief political biography
Born in Haskovo near the Turkish border in 1963, Radev trained as a pilot and pursued an aviation career from a young age. He began pilot training under the communist regime in 1987, completed officer training in the United States after democratization, and rose to become Commander of the Bulgarian Air Force in 2005, shortly after Bulgaria joined NATO. He entered presidential politics in 2016 as the nominee of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the main successor to the communist-era party.
Questions about Kremlin influence
Radev’s 2016 campaign later attracted attention for alleged contacts between BSP figures and pro-Russian operatives. Leonid Reshetnikov, a former Russian intelligence-linked figure, publicly said he had discussed backing Radev with BSP leaders. Subsequent reporting has suggested that networks of former Bulgarian officers with ties to Russian military intelligence may have aided Radev’s campaign and that Russian disinformation is widespread within Bulgaria. Brussels even created a special unit with Sofia’s foreign ministry to guard against possible Russian meddling — an initiative Radev criticized as interference in Bulgarian affairs.
Positions on Ukraine and EU policy
Radev’s remarks about Crimea and Ukraine have been a persistent flashpoint. In a 2021 debate he described Crimea as “currently Russian,” later clarifying that it belongs to Ukraine but is under Russian control. After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, he publicly called for an end to Russian military operations but has grown increasingly critical of Ukraine and the EU. He has argued that continued military aid to Kyiv prolongs the conflict, described Ukrainian counteroffensives as mistakes, and labeled politicians sending arms to Ukraine as “warmongers.” Such stances raise the prospect that Radev could challenge Bulgaria’s broadly pro-EU posture on Ukraine and possibly block common European positions in ways that recall Viktor Orban’s periodic vetoes in Brussels.
Comparisons to Orban and other leaders
Analysts warn against a direct equation of Radev with Hungary’s Viktor Orban or Slovakia’s Robert Fico, but they also point to risks. The prevalence of pro-Russian propaganda in Bulgaria and reports of covert influence are seen as threats to democratic resilience. Radev has framed some EU counter-disinformation efforts as undue interference in domestic politics, and intelligence and journalistic investigations linking pro-Russian networks to his campaign have amplified concerns about his broader geopolitical orientation.
Anti-corruption credentials and promises
Radev publicly supported the large anti-corruption protest movement that erupted in 2021, joining chants of “Let’s get rid of the mafia!” aimed at figures such as former prime minister Boyko Borissov and media mogul-politician Delyan Peevski, both widely accused of enabling judicial capture and corruption. Western partners have sanctioned Peevski and other individuals for alleged corruption; his party was expelled from ALDE and later withdrew. The 2021 unrest helped propel the pro-European, liberal We Continue the Change movement into national politics, and its leaders Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev later served in an interim government appointed by Radev.
Can Radev deliver on corruption?
One potential route for a genuine anti-corruption push would be cooperation between Radev’s bloc and the pro-European alliance of We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB). Together they could secure the qualified parliamentary majorities needed to replace judges and officials seen as instruments of the old networks linked to Borissov and Peevski — a move that would signal substantive reform rather than rhetorical promises. But Radev’s ambiguous positions on Russia and Ukraine complicate such alliances, raising doubt about whether a united front against corruption can hold if foreign-policy differences become dominant.
Political partners and limits
Radev has shown no appetite for aligning with the nationalist, pro‑Russia Revival party, which will also be represented in the new parliament. How he balances an inward-focused anti-corruption agenda with a potentially conciliatory or skeptical stance toward EU policy on Ukraine will determine whether his government moves Bulgaria toward a more illiberal, Russia-leaning trajectory or uses its parliamentary clout to break entrenched patronage networks and strengthen democratic institutions.
The coming months will be decisive. Watch for whom Radev elevates to key ministries, whether he seeks cooperation with PP-DB on judicial and institutional reform, and how he positions Bulgaria on EU measures related to Ukraine. Those choices will reveal whether his victory marks a turn toward democratic renewal or a drift into geopolitical and democratic risks.
This article was originally published in German.