The United States and the 27-member European Union are deeply interlinked economically, making full decoupling costly for both sides. Below is a concise Q&A summarizing the scale of the relationship, where vulnerabilities lie, and what each side would lose in a rupture.
How big is trans-Atlantic trade?
Together the EU and the US account for more than 40% of global economic output and nearly one-third of world trade. In 2024 they traded over $975 billion (€867 billion) in goods. Including services, trans-Atlantic trade reached about €1.68 trillion ($1.97 trillion) in 2024.
Does the US run a trade deficit with the EU?
Yes. The US imports materially more goods from the EU than it exports there. The goods deficit widened from €156 billion in 2023 to €197 billion in 2024. Globally, the US trade deficit was roughly $1.17 trillion. The EU runs notable surpluses in sectors such as vehicles and pharmaceuticals; the US posts goods surpluses mainly in oil, gas and coal.
What about services trade?
The US posts a large services surplus with the EU, driven by major technology firms and financial and IT-related services, including licensing revenues. In 2024 the US services surplus with the EU was about €148 billion. Combining goods and services, the US overall deficit with the EU narrows to roughly €50 billion, which makes the trans-Atlantic relationship more balanced than headline goods figures suggest.
Where is the US vulnerable?
The growing importance of digital services and data-driven revenues exposes the US to tariffs, digital taxes, or regulatory retaliation in that sector. The EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), intended to shield member states from economic coercion, could be used in response to aggressive US measures, although it has not yet been deployed.
Does the US need the EU as an export market?
Yes—especially for energy. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe sharply increased imports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG). Purchases reached 81 billion cubic meters in 2025, and more than half of US natural gas exports now go to the EU. Any significant disruption would damage European energy supplies and hurt US LNG producers and gas companies.
How exposed is US agriculture?
Soybeans illustrate the risk. The US is the world’s second-largest soybean producer after Brazil, with major buyers including China and the EU. At one point EU countertariffs discussed—totaling €93 billion—would have included levies on soybeans. Such measures could harm US farmers and exports, while the EU might shift purchases toward Brazil to offset losses.
Does the US rely on Europe to finance its debt?
Yes. The US has the largest public debt in the world. On January 7 total federal debt stood at $38.4 trillion, of which $6.79 trillion (17.7%) was held by foreign creditors. As of November 2025 Japan was the largest foreign holder at $1.2 trillion, followed by the United Kingdom. Taken together, European creditors hold nearly half of US debt held abroad, making Europe an important financier.
Do tariffs and disputes weaken the dollar?
Tariffs can raise inflationary pressures in the US. Trade disputes, fiscal gaps and shifts in interest-rate policy add to global uncertainty and can weaken the dollar. Many analysts expect the dollar’s decline versus the euro that began recently to continue into 2026, particularly if the Federal Reserve cuts rates further after lowering its benchmark rate from 4.25% to 3.75% in 2025.
What are the effects of a weaker dollar?
A weaker dollar makes US exports cheaper and more competitive abroad but raises the cost of imports and domestic inflation. For the EU it has mixed consequences: it lowers the euro cost of US energy imports (helping to curb inflation and corporate energy bills) while making European exports to the US more expensive, which can hurt European exporters.
Bottom line
High volumes of trade, complementary sectoral strengths, energy flows and cross-border finance mean neither the US nor the EU can decouple without significant costs. Trade imbalances and political pressure drive disputes, but mutual dependence—especially in energy, services and financing—keeps incentives for cooperation and careful management of tensions.
This article was originally written in German.