HURON, S.D. — Farmers are cautiously thanking the administration for a $12 billion assistance package but say it will not fully make up for losses they attribute to recent trade disputes and higher input costs.
On a South Dakota farm, Kevin Deinert opens the hatch of a silver grain bin to reveal a full soybean harvest. In past seasons his beans would already have been heading to China; before the tariffs, China bought roughly 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans a year. After the tariff battles, much of that trade shifted to Brazil and other suppliers.
“The Chinese market evaporated,” Deinert said, and rising costs for fertilizer and other inputs — which farmers link to tariffs on suppliers including Canada and to broader inflation — have left many operations operating at a loss. He called the $12 billion package “meaningful,” but added he doubts it will resolve all the sector’s problems.
Mainstream farm groups greeted the aid positively while urging further action. The Farm Bureau Federation praised the bridge payments as an important start, and Missouri Farm Bureau President Garrett Hawkins said federal officials should keep working to recalibrate trade strategies, reopen overseas markets, spur domestic demand and shore up long-term farm viability.
Other groups were more blunt in their criticism. State chapters of the National Farmers Union argue that the administration’s tariff standoffs—beginning with the 2018 rounds and extending through the more recent clashes with China—have done real damage to Heartland agriculture. Doug Sombke, president of the South Dakota Farmers Union, accused the administration of having created the problem and then trying to patch it up. “He’s back at the fire and he’s trying to put it out with a garden hose,” Sombke said.
Agricultural lobbyists point to the loss of long-standing foreign buyers, sharply higher equipment and input costs, and lingering pandemic-era supply-chain disruptions. Deinert, who also leads the South Dakota Soybean Growers Association, summarized a common view: “We want trade, not aid.”
The White House points to a trade agreement reached with China in November that includes a pledge to buy U.S. soybeans: about 12 million metric tons by the end of February and 25 million metric tons over the following three years. If those purchases materialize, they could restore exports to roughly pre-trade-war levels, but many producers remain skeptical. Deinert said he has heard reports of shipments resuming to Asia but that most farmers are “trading on headlines” until they see confirmed orders on paper.
Officials say payments from the $12 billion package should begin landing in farmers’ accounts in late February. Producers must apply by Dec. 19 and are expected to learn individual payment amounts in January. Administrators have also proposed budget measures that would raise price supports for commodity crops such as soybeans and corn beginning late next year.
Timing matters: farmers need to know what support is coming to secure financing for seed and other spring planting supplies. John Kippley, an 80-year-old farmer near Aberdeen who also prepares taxes, worries the assistance may be “too little and too late.” “Banks are really nervous right now because they don’t know what’s going to happen,” he said, citing uncertainty about whether tariffs will be rolled back and concerns about strained ties with overseas buyers.
The state of the farm economy carries political weight as midterm elections near. Lawmakers will be watching rural communities in states like South Dakota—traditionally Republican strongholds—to see whether federal steps are enough to restore market stability and farm profitability.