President Salva Kiir’s abrupt removal of finance minister Bak Barnaba Chol — who had been appointed in November 2025 — and the naming of Salvatore Garang (who served as finance minister from 2018–2020 and has faced past corruption allegations) has highlighted deepening instability, analysts say. The move reportedly also displaced William Anyuon Kuol, commissioner general of the South Sudan Revenue Authority, and his deputy, while National Security Service Maj. Gen. Manasseh Machar Bol was said to have been detained. Authorities gave no official explanation.
Observers say the pattern of sudden sackings and reshuffles has become a hallmark of Kiir’s government and points to weak institutions. Boboya James Edimond of the Institute of Social Policy and Research told DW that governance in South Sudan remains rooted in tribalism, corruption, mismanagement and incompetence, and that reappointing figures like Garang “doesn’t signal good news.” He argued the country needs stronger, independent institutions — especially economic ones — rather than repeated personnel changes.
Edimond added that chronic insecurity over tenure encourages officeholders to extract resources quickly. With government posts used to appease competing political factions, appointees often prioritize immediate gains because they cannot be sure how long they will remain in office.
Those governance problems are compounded by severe fiscal strain. South Sudan has depended on oil for more than 90% of government revenue; Daniel Akech, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told DW that about 70% of that income was lost because of the civil war in neighbouring Sudan. With revenues depleted, Akech said the government is in “survival mode” and faces pressure to shrink or reshape its support base.
The security situation has worsened in several states. Fighting in Jonglei has uprooted an estimated 280,000 people across eight counties. Bor’s hospital reported rising arrivals and dwindling supplies; acting director David Tor warned staff had “run out of almost everything” and feared they could not keep treating patients. UNICEF said some 825,000 children across Unity, Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria are at risk of acute malnutrition amid the crisis.
Much of the violence traces back to the long-standing rivalry between Kiir and Riek Machar, the suspended first vice president and leader of the SPLA-in-Opposition (SPLM-iO). Renewed fighting erupted in 2025 after Machar’s arrest in Juba and the detention of several of his allies — moves analysts say have, paradoxically, unified an opposition that is usually fragmented. Akech warned the arrest and treason trial of Machar have consolidated opposition forces, narrowed Kiir’s support base and weakened both his political standing and the broader security sector.
The shadow of the 2013–2018 civil war, which is estimated to have killed around 400,000 people, still hangs over the country. A 2018 power-sharing agreement briefly brought Machar back as vice president and reduced violence for a time, but it failed to yield lasting stability or economic recovery. South Sudan continues to struggle with corruption and poor governance, and critics say the peace deal did not create the strong institutions or economic opportunities needed for durable peace.
The current conflict has unfolded largely as conventional warfare: anti-government militias have captured towns across Jonglei, Upper Nile and Equatoria, and government counteroffensives have exposed civilians to further harm. Opposition figures accuse government forces of atrocities. Oyet Nathaniel Pierino, acting chairman of the SPLA-iO, accused troops of luring villagers in Pankor, Ayod county, into a “death trap,” alleging at least 25 civilians were arrested, tortured and killed. In Akobo, near the Ethiopian border, residents told AFP that government forces opened fire on civilians; one woman said gunfire killed her grandson and his mother. The Akobo hospital, largely staffed by volunteers and with a single surgeon, treated more than 40 young men with gunshot wounds.
For Edimond, patronage and weak governance lie at the heart of South Sudan’s failures. He said appointees often do not work to build good governance because the lack of job security incentivizes short-term profiteering. Without institutional checks, frequent reshuffles and patronage appointments perpetuate a cycle of immediate gain and long-term decline.
Akech suggested Kiir still has options to de-escalate: pausing military operations against opposition militias, releasing or pardoning Machar, and convening inclusive dialogue forums. “Now there is no talking. It’s just the guns talking,” he said. Analysts argue that only meaningful political engagement and the rebuilding of institutions — not more personnel changes or narrow patronage — can create the conditions for lasting stability in South Sudan.
Edited by Benita van Eyssen