President Salva Kiir’s sudden dismissal of finance minister Bak Barnaba Chol — who had only taken office in November 2025 — and the appointment of Salvatore Garang (finance minister from 2018–2020, a figure previously dogged by corruption allegations) has underscored deepening instability in South Sudan, analysts say. The reshuffle reportedly also removed William Anyuon Kuol, commissioner general of the South Sudan Revenue Authority, and his deputy, while National Security Service Maj. Gen. Manasseh Machar Bol was said to have been detained. No official explanation was provided.
Analysts warn the pattern of abrupt sackings and reshuffles has become a defining feature of Kiir’s rule and is symptomatic of weak institutions. “The institutions of governance are deeply rooted in tribalism, corruption, mismanagement and incompetence,” Boboya James Edimond of the Institute of Social Policy and Research told DW. He added that Garang’s return “doesn’t signal good news” and stressed that what the country needs are strengthened, independent institutions — particularly economic ones — rather than frequent personnel changes.
Edimond said the persistent insecurity around tenure creates incentives for incoming officials to extract resources quickly. With government posts used to placate fractured political stakeholders, appointees “have to just look for where there’s money… because you don’t know whether you’re going to survive there for a week, a month, or a year,” he said.
Compounding political instability are severe fiscal pressures. South Sudan relied on oil for more than 90% of government revenue; Daniel Akech, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, told DW that roughly 70% of that income was lost because of the civil war in neighboring Sudan. With revenues depleted, Akech said the government is in “survival mode” and must shrink or redraw its support base.
The security situation has deteriorated across several states. In Jonglei, fighting has forced an estimated 280,000 people to flee their homes across eight counties. Bor’s hospital reported mounting arrivals and dwindling supplies; David Tor, acting director of Bor hospital, warned that staff had “run out of almost everything” and faced the prospect of losing patients. UNICEF has reported that some 825,000 children across Unity, Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria are at risk of acute malnutrition amid the crisis.
Much of the violence is linked to the enduring rivalry between Kiir and Riek Machar, the suspended first vice president and leader of the SPLA-in-Opposition (SPLM-iO). Renewed fighting broke out in 2025 after the arrest of Machar in Juba and the detention of several of his allies, which analysts say has, paradoxically, unified a typically splintered opposition. Akech said the arrest and treason trial of Machar “has actually unified the opposition,” heightening political and military tensions. He warned that Kiir’s narrowing of his support base has weakened both his political position and the overall security sector.
The legacy of the 2013–2018 civil war — which killed an estimated 400,000 people — looms large. A 2018 power-sharing agreement briefly brought Machar back as vice president and eased conflict, but it failed to deliver lasting stability or economic recovery. South Sudan remains plagued by corruption and poor governance, and critics say the peace deal did not build effective institutions or prosperity.
The current conflict has unfolded as conventional warfare, with offensives by militias opposed to Kiir’s government capturing towns in Jonglei, Upper Nile and Equatoria, and government counteroffensives exposing civilians to harm. Opposition figures have accused government forces of atrocities: the SPLA-iO’s acting chairman, Oyet Nathaniel Pierino, accused troops of luring villagers in Pankor, Ayod county, into a “death trap,” saying at least 25 civilians were arrested, tortured and killed. In Akobo, an opposition-held town near the Ethiopian border, civilians told AFP that government forces fired on residents; one woman recounted how gunfire killed her grandson and his mother. The Akobo hospital — run largely by volunteers and staffed with a single surgeon — treated more than 40 young men with gunshot wounds.
For Edimond, patronage and weak governance are central to South Sudan’s failures. He argued appointees “do not work to create good conditions for good governance… They just go there to look for avenues of corrupting the system because there’s no security of tenure.” Without institutional checks, he said, reshuffles and appointments perpetuate a cycle of short-term gain and long-term weakening.
Akech suggested Kiir could still take steps to de-escalate the violence: pausing military campaigns against opposition militias, releasing or pardoning Machar, and opening inclusive forums for dialogue. “Now there is no talking. It’s just the guns talking,” he said. Analysts contend that only meaningful political engagement and the rebuilding of institutions — not more personnel changes or narrow patronage — can create conditions for stability.
Edited by Benita van Eyssen
