From New Jersey and North Carolina to the Illinois primaries, Israel has become a central issue in Democratic races. Polling shows American sympathy for Israel slipping, especially among younger voters and Democrats, and progressive challengers are mounting campaigns in the most liberal districts.
In Illinois, groups linked to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee spent tens of millions of dollars on primary elections, making outside spending a contentious topic. AIPAC, a major pro-Israel lobbying organization that endorses and funds candidates, has long sought to influence U.S. policy toward Israel and to shape lawmakers across administrations. The group has been controversial for years, clashing with presidents over arms sales and settlements, being tied decades ago to a Pentagon analyst who pleaded guilty to sharing secrets, and opposing the Iran nuclear deal during the Obama era.
Progressives increasingly criticize AIPAC because of its steadfast backing of Israel, and criticism has intensified amid debate over Israel’s occupation of Gaza and its response to the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attacks. Those events have sparked mass protests worldwide. At the same time, incidents of antisemitic violence have risen, including an attack at a Michigan synagogue, the Bondi Beach massacre in Australia in December 2025, and the killing of two Israeli Embassy staffers near the Jewish Museum in Washington last year.
Recent Gallup and NBC News polls show notable shifts in public opinion. For the first time in about 25 years of Gallup tracking, more Americans say they sympathize more with Palestinians than with Israelis, 41% to 36%. In 2018, nearly two-thirds of respondents sided more with Israelis. An NBC News poll this week found a narrow 40%–39% split favoring Israelis, while those sympathizing more with Palestinians have risen from 13% in 2013 to 39% now.
The largest changes are among Democrats and younger voters. Gallup finds Democratic sympathy for Israelis has plunged from a 2014 peak of 58% to 17% today, with 65% now siding more with Palestinians. Americans ages 18 to 34 have flipped as well: in 2018 they favored Israelis 59% to 21%, but as of February they favor Palestinians 53% to 23%. NBC reports similar trends: Democrats moved from a 34%–18% tilt toward Israelis in 2013 to a 67%–17% tilt toward Palestinians now, and negative views among 18–34-year-olds rose sharply after 2023.
Independents and 35-to-54-year-olds have shifted away from Israel too. Gallup shows independents falling from 63% sympathy for Israelis in 2013 to 30% now, with 41% siding with Palestinians. Support among 35–54-year-olds fell from 45% to 28% in a year, and NBC finds double-digit declines in positive ratings among that group.
Older voters and Republicans remain the most likely to side with Israel. Those 55 and older still show a plurality for Israel, 49% to 31%, though that margin has narrowed since 2023. Republicans continue to lean strongly toward Israelis, roughly 70% in Gallup and 69% in NBC polling, despite some erosion from earlier highs.
In the short term, divides over Israel are already shaping Democratic primaries. If these trends persist, they could also influence U.S. policy toward Israel over the longer term, particularly as tensions with Iran continue to factor into foreign policy calculations.