Turkey’s Mediterranean beaches remain popular, but tourism has diversified in recent years to include cultural tours of eastern Anatolia and activities such as diving, mountaineering and hiking in formerly restricted border areas. Official figures show Turkey received about 64 million tourists in 2025, generating roughly €56 billion, overtaking Italy in 2024 to rank fourth worldwide after France, Spain and the United States.
After heavy investment in comfort and safety following the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector had hoped to top 65 million visitors and about €59 billion in revenue in 2026. Those plans have been disrupted by the US-Israel war with Iran.
Industry representatives report cancelled hotel reservations and tours in eastern and southeastern Turkey. Iran has been an important source market—Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) data show an average of 3.3 million visitors from Iran annually in recent years, making Iranians the fifth-largest group of arrivals after Russia, Germany, Britain and Bulgaria. Iranian tourists typically travel to Turkey for Nowruz, the spring festival, staying in hotels near the border, shopping and visiting relatives. This year, those hotels are largely empty.
Onur Tuncdemir of Ayanis Tour said travel from neighboring eastern and southeastern countries has “come to a complete standstill” since the start of the war, with agents mainly handling cancellations and deposit refunds. He noted the sector had already been hit by anti-regime protests in Iran in late 2025 and early 2026, but that business collapsed after February 28, 2026, coinciding with Nowruz and the end of Ramadan this year—typically a busy period.
By contrast, Kaan Kavaloglu, chairman of the Union of Mediterranean Touristic Hoteliers and Operators (AKTOB), stressed that popular destinations such as Istanbul, Bodrum and Antalya are not dangerous and that there have not been widespread cancellations so far. He reported particular caution among British travelers, while bookings from Russia and Germany have stayed more stable.
International forecasters warn of wider impacts: Oxford Economics projected inbound arrivals to the Middle East could fall 11–27% year-on-year in 2026 because of the conflict with Iran. The firm noted that Gulf-state airports serve as major global hubs—handling about 14% of all flights—so disruptions there could produce a domino effect on travel worldwide. Analyses remain cautious because the situation is ongoing.
Mehmet Isler, chairman of the Aegean Tourism Enterprises and Accommodation Association (ETIK), expressed confidence in the sector’s resilience, pointing to recovery from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict. He acknowledged massive cancellations from Iran and parts of the Arab world but suggested some tourist flows might shift toward the safer Mediterranean, potentially benefiting Turkey. He added that the coming four to six weeks would be decisive and that short-term losses were being factored in.
So far, Iran has not attacked Turkey directly, which is a NATO member and EU candidate, though NATO air defenses have shot down three missiles fired in Turkey’s direction. As Easter approaches, European travelers are weighing safe destinations: on March 11 the German Foreign Office issued a travel warning advising against non-essential trips to Turkish regions bordering Iran, Iraq and Syria.
This article was translated from German.