A recent Civil Defense guide advising Cuban families how to prepare for a possible military attack has provoked anger and bewilderment among many citizens already struggling with shortages. The booklet urges people to assemble a backpack with personal documents, a radio, flashlight, matches or candles, a first-aid kit, three days’ worth of food, drinking water, hygiene items and medicines for chronic conditions, and to identify possible shelters in case of an airstrike. For Cubans facing daily power cuts, food scarcity and limited access to healthcare, the idea of stockpiling supplies for a war has struck many as out of touch with reality.
The emergency advice was published amid one of the tensest stretches in recent decades between Havana and Washington. US President Donald Trump has frequently signaled a harder line toward Cuba, at one point saying that “Cuba is next,” language that has heightened worries on the island and in the region.
Tension spiked after reporting that Cuba had purchased more than 300 military drones from suppliers such as Russia and Iran, and was weighing ways to employ them near the US naval base at Guantánamo. Analysts caution, however, that the drone numbers cited would not materially change the balance with the United States. Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, a politics professor at George Mason University, said 300 drones are negligible compared with US military capabilities and emphasized the overwhelming asymmetry between the two countries.
Correa-Cabrera and other experts say the episode should be seen in a broader geopolitical frame: Cuba’s location gives it strategic value to any power seeking influence in the Western Hemisphere, and its potential ties to nations at odds with the United States—plus the possible use of irregular forms of conflict—complicate the diplomatic picture. The worry is less about a conventional Cuba–US war than about a wider confrontation that could involve other states.
Observers also point to the deep humanitarian strains inside Cuba as a key factor. Widespread blackouts, fuel shortages, food and medical scarcities and high emigration have left the population vulnerable. Juan Battaleme, a senior fellow at the Argentine Council for International Relations, says the most consequential impact for Washington could be political or humanitarian rather than strictly military: images of mass migration or Cubans seeking refuge, including at Guantánamo, would carry a heavy political cost for the US and risk regional instability.
Both analysts conclude that, despite heated rhetoric and alarm over drones, the confrontation remains predominantly political and diplomatic for now. Washington, they say, prefers any change in Cuba to be managed and orderly to avoid triggering a wider crisis in the region.