Black smoke rises over the Persian Gulf as gas fields, power plants, civilian infrastructure and military facilities across the region are under attack from Iran. Its government says it will continue to respond in kind to US‑Israeli strikes on military, civilian and energy-producing targets within its territory — even though US President Donald Trump has repeatedly declared Iran militarily defeated.
As the war drags into a fourth week, political pressure is building on Washington. Rising energy prices are fueling inflation and economic uncertainty worldwide, yet the US and Israel continue their joint bombing campaign. Does this leave room for negotiations?
Marcus Schneider, head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation’s Beirut-based Regional Peace and Security Project, sees little chance for talks. “I am very skeptical at the moment,” he told DW.
Key interlocutors “are no longer around,” Schneider said, after the targeted killing of senior Iranian figures removed important negotiators and left successors who are viewed as less willing to compromise. Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening hours of the war on February 28; his son Mojtaba Khamenei was named supreme leader but has not been seen in public amid speculation he was badly injured in the strike. Other top officials, including security chief Ali Larijani, have been assassinated, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reported their spokesman was killed in an air strike.
There is a deep trust deficit. Stefan Lukas, director of Berlin’s Middle East Minds think tank, said Tehran has learned that attacks can occur even during negotiations, leaving little official interest in talks with Washington. Contact through back channels — for example via Iraq or Oman — can’t be ruled out, Lukas said, but “there will be no significant changes at the diplomatic level for the time being.”
For now, Iran’s leadership appears resilient. Schneider warned that the strategy of decapitation strikes is backfiring: removing leaders has not produced rapid regime change, and merely surviving an armed conflict with the US is perceived by Tehran as a form of victory, according to an analysis by the Middle East Institute. The regime’s “mosaic defense” — semi‑autonomous units able to operate without a centralized command — reinforces that resilience.
Tehran also appears to be shifting emphasis from seeking military breakthroughs to pursuing political and strategic outcomes. Its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure have directly affected global markets. “Why should Iran stop now?” Schneider asked, arguing wars are decided not only militarily but politically — Tehran hopes its capacity to endure hardship will outlast that of its adversaries. While it cannot match US military power, Iran can escalate economically, moving the conflict into an arena where military superiority is less decisive, an assessment echoed by international analysts.
This article was originally published in German.